Seasonal Drought Pattern Changes Due to Climate Variability: Case Study in Afghanistan

Abstract

We assessed the changes in meteorological drought severity and drought return periods during cropping seasons in Afghanistan for the period of 1901 to 2010. The droughts in the country were analyzed using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Global Precipitation Climatology Center rainfall and Climate Research Unit temperature data both at 0.5° resolutions were used for this purpose. Seasonal drought return periods were estimated using the values of the SPEI fitted with the best distribution function. Trends in climatic variables and SPEI were assessed using modified Mann–Kendal trend test, which has the ability to remove the influence of long-term persistence on trend significance. The study revealed increases in drought severity and frequency in Afghanistan over the study period. Temperature, which increased up to 0.14 °C/decade, was the major factor influencing the decreasing trend in the SPEI values in the northwest and southwest of the country during rice- and corn-growing seasons, whereas increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall were the cause of a decrease in SPEI during wheat-growing season. We concluded that temperature plays a more significant role in decreasing the SPEI values and, therefore, more severe droughts in the future are expected due to global warming.

Spatial assessment of meteorological drought features over different climate regions in Iran

“…It has been reported that the frequency and severity of droughts have increased across the world in recent years. Therefore, assessment of the changes in droughts is crucial for the development of resilience to global environmental changes (Dabanlı et al, 2017;Güçlü, 2018;Şen, 2018;Qutbudin et al, 2019).…”

Spatio-Temporal Pattern in the Changes in Availability and Sustainability of Water Resources in Afghanistan

“…This area also experiences a broad range of variations in temperature. The mean temperature in July on the plains is of the range 0-8 • C with the absolute minimum temperature ranging from −20 to −25 • C. The mean temperatures in July on the plains range from 24 to 32 • C with a 45 • C absolute maximum temperature [30]. The climate of Afghanistan is subtropical and continental, in which summers are hot and sunny while winters are often cold and relatively rainy.…”

“…The mean temperature in July on the plains is of the range 0-8 °C with the absolute minimum temperature ranging from −20 to −25 °C. The mean temperatures in July on the plains range from 24 to 32 °C with a 45 °C absolute maximum temperature [30].…”

“…The dynamism of climatic variables has been reported in many studies, particularly, changes in rainfall [14][15][16][17][18][19] and temperature [20][21][22][23][24]. This has aggravated the risks of disasters including droughts which may further compound the water resources issue across the globe [25][26][27], including over-abstraction, which would increase in the near future [28][29][30] particularly with an expected increase of the impacts of climate change [31,32]. As a finite resource, the supply of fresh water is difficult to increase and thus, it is paramount to prudently manage the limited water resources to meet the ever-increasing demand of growing population and developing economies [33][34][35].…”

Cross Assessment of Twenty-One Different Methods for Missing Precipitation Data Estimation

“…Hydrological, climatological, and metrological analyses are mainly based on the availability of rainfall data [1], although problems associated with missing data are common and exist for various reasons. This may be the result of stations being relocated because of urbanization, errors in the methods implemented for measuring the rainfall amount, or the breakdown of instruments for a specific period, particularly in areas of flooding [2].…”