Seasonal cropland transformation and long-term surveillance of land-use/land cover alterations in the Indian Sundarban region

Abstract

In the Indian Sundarban region, the current study investigates the long-term dynamics of seasonal (Kharif and rabi) land use/land cover change and spatial change of seasonal croplands. Based on the Random Forest (RF) classifier, LULC classes has divided into eight categories. Cropland's spatial and temporal dynamicity has been generated using Land Change Modeler in TerrSet throughout the past 20 years (2000/01-2020/2021). With the aid of a confusion matrix, classification accuracy has been tested and shown to be quite acceptable and effective in identifying the long-term land-use change in the study area. It has been discovered that during the Kharif seasons (November 2000 to November 2020), waterlogged, built-up, and cropland expanded by approximately 57% (99.14 km2), 23% (126.06 km2), and 2% (29.90 km2), respectively, at the expense of current fallow, vegetation, and mudflats, which decreased by roughly 28% (81.9 km2), 11% (78.68 km2), and 10% (60.14 km2), respectively. Croplands and current fallows were the most dynamic land changes throughout the Rabi season (February 2001 to February 2021), increasing by about 102% (522.28 km), while the area now in fallow steadily decreased by about 56% (991.23 km) between 2001 and 2021. The analysis of cropland changes reveals that the most changes in cropland have been recorded in the populated area's central, northern, and northeastern regions. The results of this study will help develop agricultural and environmental management methods to ensure the sustainability of the ecosystem and agriculture resources.