Seasonal Changes in Precipitation Extremes in Russia for the Last Several Decades and Their Impact on Vital Activities of the Human Population

Золотокрылин, А. Н.; Черенкова, Е. А.

doi:10.24057/2071-9388-2017-10-4-69-82

Cited by 19 publications

(11 citation statements)

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“…Some weather stations in different parts of the Ural reported a decrease of 99p daily precipitation to 0.5-1 mm per 30 year, and up to 1.5 mm on the Yamal Peninsula. The observed increase of 99p daily precipitation is in concordance with positive trends in precipitation extremes changes which were previously found for the most part of Russia (Zolina and Bulygina 2016;Zolotokrylin and Cherenkova 2017).…”

Section: Table 1 Average Maximum and Minimum Values Of The Differensupporting

confidence: 90%

“…The similar changes in temperature and precipitation extremes have been observed during last decades in the most of Northern Eurasia (Bulygina et al 2007;Zolotokrylin and Cherenkova 2017;Titkova et al 2018). However, the notable regional variations in climatic extremes changes are found within the Ural region, which may be related to both changes in the atmospheric circulation and geographical features of the location of weather stations.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 71%

“…A significant decrease of very cold days, increase of very warm days and extreme precipitation events has been confirmed for most of Russia, especially for the European part of the country (ER). Zolotokrylin and Cherenkova (2017) analyzed the probable damaging effects of the observed increase of precipitation extremes on the environment and human activities for Russian regions with high population density.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mapping temperature and precipitation extremes under changing climate (on the example of The Ural region, Russia)

Shikhov

Abdullin

Tarasov

2020

GES

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The paper presents a series of maps of extreme climatic characteristics for the Ural region and their changes under climate warming observed in last decades. We calculate threshold, absolute and percentile-based indices with the use of daily temperature and precipitation dataset of 99 weather stations of Roshydromet. Extreme climatic characteristics were averaged by moving 30-year periods from 1951 to 2010 for temperature and from 1966 to 2015 for precipitation. The regression-based interpolation was used for mapping climatic extremes taking into consideration the influence of topography. Elevation and general curvature of the terrain are considered as independent variables. In addition, the changes of extreme characteristics between the 30-year periods were estimated. As a result, a series of maps of temperature and precipitation extremes for the Ural region has been created. The maps present not only spatial distribution of the climatic extremes, but also regional features of their changes under climate warming. In general, the revealed changes in extremes in the Ural region correspond to the trends observed on the most of the territory of Russia. There is a substantial decrease of the number of extremely cold days in winter, and the minimum winter temperature has a strong positive trend (up to 1-5°C/30 years). The maximum temperature in summer has a positive trend in most of the territory, but the increase rate does not exceed 2°C between 1951–1980 and 1981–2010. The precipitation extremes also increased up to 0.5-1.5 mm when comparing 1966–1995 and 1985–2015 periods.

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Section: Table 1 Average Maximum and Minimum Values Of The Differensupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 71%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mapping temperature and precipitation extremes under changing climate (on the example of The Ural region, Russia)

Shikhov

Abdullin

Tarasov

2020

GES

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“…In the densely populated territories of Russia, the frequency of extreme winter precipitation has increased by an average of 20-40%. Rising occurrence rates of extreme summer precipitation were observed in the Central Black Earth Region of the European part of Russia over 1961(Zolotokrylin and Cherenkova, 2017. In 2000-2015, extreme winter precipitation was observed on a greater number of days per year compared to 1970-1999 in the European part and in the southern part of Russia (Titkova et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Changes in extreme precipitation over the North Caucasus and the Crimean Peninsula during 1961-2018

Vyshkvarkova¹

2021

Időjárás

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Based on daily meteorological data, spatial and temporal distributions of extreme precipitation in 1961–2018 were examined for the North Caucasus and the Crimean Peninsula. Extreme precipitation indices recommended by the Expert Team for Climate Change Detection and Indices were calculated for 45 meteorological stations. Analysis shows that the highest values of extreme precipitation indices are on the Black Sea coast of the Caucasus, except duration of dry spell, because of the atmospheric circulation features and the complex orography of studied area. Extreme precipitation trends are spatially incoherent and mostly statistically insignificant over the studied territory. Significant upward trends on the Caspian Sea coast and Stavropol Upland and statistically significant decreasing trends in the fixed threshold-based indices and all intensity indices over the Crimean Peninsula were detected. Positive and significant correlation between precipitation indices (except consecutive dry days) and altitude was obtained.

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“…First of all, this increases the frequency of severe floods and droughts [5]. The trends in extreme precipitation are also correlated with the geographic features of the region and the used data source quality [6,7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time Series Analysis of Atmospheric Precipitation Characteristics in Western Siberia for 1979–2018 across Different Datasets

et al. 2022

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A comparative statistical analysis of the spatiotemporal variability of atmospheric precipitation characteristics (mean and extreme values) in Western Siberia was performed based on data acquired from meteorological stations, global precipitation datasets such as the project of Asian Precipitation—Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) and from Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), and reanalysis archives, including from National Centers of Environmental Prediction (NCEP-DOE) and the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) for the period 1979–2018. The best agreement of the values from the observational data was observed with the values from GPCC. This archive also represented the periodicities in the time series of observational data from meteorological stations, especially in the short-period part of the spectrum. Underestimated values were revealed for the APHRODITE archive, while overestimated ones were found for the NCEP reanalysis data. In comparison with GPCC, the ERA5 dataset reproduced the general variability but with a smaller amplitude (the correlation coefficient was up to 0.9). In general, the median estimates of the precipitation amount derived from the meteorological stations’ data, as well from the reanalysis data, were in better agreement with each other rather than their extreme values. However, their temporal variability can be effectively described by other datasets.

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Seasonal Changes in Precipitation Extremes in Russia for the Last Several Decades and Their Impact on Vital Activities of the Human Population

Cited by 19 publications

References 0 publications

Mapping temperature and precipitation extremes under changing climate (on the example of The Ural region, Russia)

Mapping temperature and precipitation extremes under changing climate (on the example of The Ural region, Russia)

Changes in extreme precipitation over the North Caucasus and the Crimean Peninsula during 1961-2018

Time Series Analysis of Atmospheric Precipitation Characteristics in Western Siberia for 1979–2018 across Different Datasets

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