Seasonal changes in network connectivity and consequences for pathogen transmission in a solitary carnivore

Abstract

Seasonal variation in habitat use and animal behavior can alter host contact patterns with potential consequences for pathogen transmission dynamics. The endangered Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) has experienced significant pathogen-induced mortality and continues to be at risk of future epidemics. Prior research has found increased panther movement in Florida’s dry versus wet seasons, which may affect panther population connectivity and seasonally increase potential pathogen transmission. Our objective was to determine if Florida panthers are more spatially connected in dry seasons relative to wet seasons, and test if identified connectivity differences resulted in divergent predicted epidemic dynamics. We leveraged extensive panther telemetry data to construct seasonal panther home range overlap networks over an 11 year period. We tested for differences in network connectivity, and used observed network characteristics to simulate transmission of a broad range of pathogens through dry and wet season networks. We found that panthers were more spatially connected in dry seasons than wet seasons. Further, these differences resulted in a trend toward larger and longer pathogen outbreaks when epidemics were initiated in the dry season. Our results demonstrate that seasonal variation in behavioral patterns—even among largely solitary species—can have substantial impacts on epidemic dynamics.