Seasonal and intra-seasonal rainfall and drought characteristics as indicators of climate change and variability in Southern Africa: a focus on Kabwe and Livingstone in Zambia

Makondo, Cuthbert Casey; Thomas, David S.G.

doi:10.1007/s00704-019-03029-x

Cited by 27 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…The least relative change in wet days coupled with an increase in annual precipitation is expected in the northern region (AEZ III) implying an increase in occurrences of heavy precipitation events thus posing the risk of flooding or crop damage due to logging (Déqué et al 2017). The overall reduction in the number of wet days is in line with earlier findings implying a shortening growing season, increased threat of crop failure, and livelihoods of smallholder farmers (Makondo and Thomas 2020;New et al 2006). The reduction in rainfall might be small in magnitude, but generally, this has been consistent with multiple findings (Jain 2007;Maúre et al 2018;New et al 2006;Pinto et al 2016).…”

Section: Expected Precipitation and Temperature Changes And Its Implicationssupporting

confidence: 89%

Climate change impacts on rainfed maize yields in Zambia under conventional and optimized crop management

et al. 2021

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Maize production in Zambia is characterized by significant yield gaps attributed to nutrient management and climate change threatens to widen these gaps unless agronomic management is optimized. Insights in the impacts of climate change on maize yields and the potential to mitigate negative impacts by crop management are currently lacking for Zambia. Using five Global Circulation models and the WOFOST crop model, we assessed climate change impacts on maize yields at a 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Impacts were assessed for the near future (2035-2066) and far future (2065-2096) in comparison with a reference period (1971-2001). The surface temperature and warm days (above 30 °C) are projected to increase strongly in the southern and western regions. Precipitation is expected to decline, except in the northern regions, whereas the number of wet days declines everywhere, shortening the growing season. The risk of crop failure in western and southern regions increases due to dry spells and heat stress, while crops in the northern regions will be threatened by flooding or waterlogging due to heavy precipitation. The simulated decline in the water-limited and water- and nutrient-limited maize yields varied from 15 to 20% in the near future and from 20 to 40% in the far future, mainly due to the expected temperature increases. Optimizing management by adjusting planting dates and maize variety selection can counteract these impacts by 6-29%. The existing gaps between water-limited and nutrient-limited maize yields are substantially larger than the expected yield decline due to climate change. Improved nutrient management is therefore crucial to boost maize production in Zambia.

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Section: Expected Precipitation and Temperature Changes And Its Implicationssupporting

confidence: 89%

Climate change impacts on rainfed maize yields in Zambia under conventional and optimized crop management

et al. 2021

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“…The least relative change in wet days coupled with an increase in annual precipitation is expected in the northern region (AEZ III) implying an increase in occurrences of heavy precipitation events thus posing the risk of ooding or crop damage due to logging (Déqué et al, 2017). The overall reduction in the number of wet days is in line with earlier ndings implying a shortening growing season, increased threat of crop failure and livelihoods of smallholder farmers (Makondo and Thomas, 2020;New et al, 2006). The reduction in rainfall might be small in magnitude but generally this has been consistent with multiple ndings (Jain, 2007;Maúre et al, 2018;New et al, 2006;Pinto et al, 2016).…”

Section: Expected Precipitation and Temperature Changes And Its Implisupporting

confidence: 59%

“…However, climate variability and change threatens to exacerbate yield gaps and increase inter-annual yield variability (Kotir, 2011;Ray et al, 2015). In particular, changes in temperature and precipitation have been shown to impact both target and actual maize yields (Challinor et al, 2014;Hoffman et al, 2018;Lobell et al, 2011a;Makondo and Thomas, 2020;Peichl et al, 2019;Rurinda et al, 2015;Warnatzsch and Reay, 2020). Since, climate change induced changes in both temperature and rainfall intensity will vary on both temporal and spatial scale, it is important to have spatially explicit insights into their impact on crop production (Liu et al, 2012;Rurinda et al, 2015;Tesfaye et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on rainfed maize yields in Zambia under conventional and optimized crop management

Siatwiinda

Supit

Hove

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Maize production in Zambia is characterized by significant yield gaps attributed to nutrient management and climate change threatens to widen these gaps unless agronomic management is optimized. Insights in the impacts of climate change on maize yields and the potential to mitigate negative impacts by crop management is currently lacking for Zambia. Using five Global Circulation models and the WOFOST crop model, we assessed expected climate change and the impacts on maize yields at a 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Impacts were assessed for two future periods (i.e. near future: 2035–2066 and far future: 2065–2096) in comparison with a reference period (1971–2001). The average surface temperature and summer days (above 30°C) are projected to increase strongly in the southern and western regions. Precipitation is expected to decline, except in the northern regions while the number of wet days decline everywhere, indicating a shortening growing season. The risk of crop failure in western and southern regions increases due to dry spells and heat stress while crops in the northern regions will be threatened by flooding or waterlogging due to heavy precipitation. The simulated decline in the water limited and water- and nutrient- limited maize yields varied from ca 15–20% in the near future and from ca 20–40% in the far future, mainly due to the expected temperature increases. Optimizing management by adjusting planting dates and maize varieties can counteract these impacts by 6–29%. Quantitatively, the existing gaps between water limited yields and nutrient limited maize yields are substantially larger than the expected yield decline due to climate change. Improved nutrient management is therefore crucial to avoid crop yield decline and might even increase crop yields in Zambia.

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“…In rural areas, smallholder farmers often have difficulty accessing many of the agricultural supplies necessary for stable crop production year to year. Materials for cultivation and storage are generally handmade and, in many cases, not weatherproof-a serious issue as eastern and southern Africa is experiencing increasingly variable weather patterns in the context of climate change (Harding, 2020;Makondo & Thomas, 2020). Using local materials for storage, there is a constant risk of crop loss by insect damage, fungal contamination, floods-either during production or in post-production storage.…”

Section: Profit+ and Ingenaesmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Poverty Alleviation Efforts Manifest among Smallholder Groundnut Farmers in Eastern Zambia

Dillon¹,

Crosby²,

Young³

2021

JSD

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Poverty alleviation and health promotion programs have become part and parcel of life in rural Zambia. It is critical to track the performance of these programs to assess the impact they have on the people involved. The purpose of this study is to ascertain barriers, specifically related to market access and crop yields, faced by smallholder groundnut farmers in Eastern Zambia following implementation of the PROFIT+ program. Focus group discussion and informants were selected based on participation in the PROFIT+. Interview data were then qualitatively analyzed to determine consistent themes among farmers. Farmers highlight three general barriers/risks that impacted both their economic well-being and health. In some cases, these barriers may act as feedback loops, health affecting economic productivity and vice versa. These include (a) a lack of adequate storage facilities (b) exposure to aflatoxins produced by the Aspergillus fungus (c) and exposure to pesticides due to a lack of personal protective equipment. Generally, groundnut farmers have benefitted from the efforts of PROFIT+, though challenges remain. Farmers consistently report increased their crop yields; however, access to outside markets has yet to materialize. Exposure to both aflatoxins and pesticides are concerning, particularly in areas of high stunting rates as these chemicals may exacerbate the effects of malnutrition. Further, changing weather patterns in the context of climate change increase issues faces by smallholder farmers.

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Seasonal and intra-seasonal rainfall and drought characteristics as indicators of climate change and variability in Southern Africa: a focus on Kabwe and Livingstone in Zambia

Cited by 27 publications

References 32 publications

Climate change impacts on rainfed maize yields in Zambia under conventional and optimized crop management

Climate change impacts on rainfed maize yields in Zambia under conventional and optimized crop management

Climate change impacts on rainfed maize yields in Zambia under conventional and optimized crop management

How Poverty Alleviation Efforts Manifest among Smallholder Groundnut Farmers in Eastern Zambia

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