Searching for Bright Lines in the Trump Presidency

Abstract

Is American democracy under threat? The question is more prominent in political debate now than at any time in recent memory. However, it is also too blunt; there is widespread recognition that democracy is multifaceted and that backsliding, when it occurs, tends to be piecemeal. To address these concerns, we provide original data from surveys of political science experts and the public measuring the perceived importance and performance of U.S. democracy on a number of dimensions during the first year-and-a-half of the Trump presidency. We draw on a theory of how politicians may transgress limits on their authority and the conditions under which constraints are self-enforcing. We connect this theory to our survey data in an effort to identify potential areas of agreement—bright lines—among experts and the public about the most important democratic principles and whether they have been violated. Public and expert perceptions often differ on the importance of specific democratic principles. In addition, though our experts perceive substantial democratic erosion, particularly in areas related to checks and balances, polarization between Trump supporters and opponents undermines any social consensus recognizing these violations.

Ethnic antagonism erodes Republicans’ commitment to democracy

“…(An apparently unintentional echo of this finding appears in a recent study comparing support for a variety of democratic norms between the general public and a sample of “expert” political scientists; ref. 6 .) He concluded that “it is the articulate classes rather than the public who serve as the major repositories of the public conscience and as the carriers of the Creed” (ref.…”

“…In another series of surveys conducted in 2017-2018 as part of the Bright Line Watch project, only 73% of Americans said it was "important" or "essential" that "government does not interfere with journalists or news organizations," and only 68% said it was "important" or "essential" that "government effectively prevents private actors from engaging in politically-motivated violence or intimidation" (ref. 6, pp. 703-704).…”

“…In the Bright Line Watch surveys, differences in the perceived importance of a variety of democratic norms between supporters and opponents of President Trump were “generally small,” except on specific issues of salient partisan controversy such as foreign influence in elections and partisan gerrymandering (ref. 6 , pp. 705, 706).…”

“…Political developments in the United States and around the world have drawn attention to the question of “how democracies die” ( 1 ). While the role of ordinary citizens in democratic backsliding is by no means settled ( 2 , 3 ), concerns about “democratic deconsolidation” and “democratic erosion” have prompted renewed attention to public attitudes regarding democracy and democratic norms ( 4 – 7 ).…”

Populism and the American Party System: Opportunities and Constraints

“…In the wake of the 2016 elections, scholars have been more willing to consider the possibilities for authoritarian populism (Miller, Szakonyi, and Morgenbesser 2018) and democratic erosion in the United States (Carey et al 2019). In How Democracies Die, Levitsky and Ziblatt (2018) envision a scenario by which an authoritarian leader, standing at the helm of a party that controls both chambers of Congress and a majority on the Supreme Court, politicizes election administration and law enforcement to entrench permanent control of the federal government.…”