SEAMHCRD deterministic compartmental model based on clinical stages of infection for COVID-19 pandemic in Sultanate of Oman

Abstract

The present novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection has engendered a worldwide crisis on an enormous scale within a very short period. The effective solution for this pandemic is to recognize the nature and spread of the disease so that appropriate policies can be framed. Mathematical modelling is always at the forefront to understand and provide an adequate description of the transmission of any disease. In this research work, we have formulated a deterministic compartmental model (SEAMHCRD) including various stages of infection, such as Mild, Moderate, Severe and Critical to study the spreading of COVID-19 and estimated the model parameters by fitting the model with the reported data of ongoing pandemic in Oman. The steady-state, stability and final pandemic size of the model has been proved mathematically. The various transmission as well as transition parameters are estimated during the period from June 4th to July 30th, 2020. Based on the currently estimated parameters, the pandemic size is also predicted for another 100 days. Sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the key model parameters, and the parameter gamma due to contact with the symptomatic moderately infected is found to be more significant in spreading the disease. Accordingly, the corresponding basic reproduction number has also been computed using the Next Generation Matrix (NGM) method. As the value of the basic reproduction number (R0) is 0.9761 during the period from June 4th to July 30th, 2020, the disease-free equilibrium is stable. Isolation and tracing the contact of infected individuals are recommended to control the spread of disease.

Potential of Microneedle Systems for COVID-19 Vaccination: Current Trends and Challenges

“…Changing fluid antibodies to a dry powder frame is one approach to improve immunization toughness [ 232 , 341 , 350 ]. In terms of drying, vacuum drying, drying with a desiccant, and lyophilization are all methods of drying biopharmaceuticals such as immunizations [ 78 , 100 , 102 ]. The prescribed procedure for drying biopharmaceuticals is lyophilization [ 33 , 40 , 339 , 367 ].…”

“…COVID-19 victims eventually die as a result of persistent elevations in inflammatory mediators and extensive organ damage throughout the culmination stage [ 98 , 99 , 100 ]. Antibody-mediated humoral immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection are critical in the progression of COVID-19 illness [ 101 , 102 ]. In addition, outcomes from clinical research employing convalescent plasma and intravenous immunoglobulins (IVIG) to treat COVID-19 patients with passive antibody therapy have been published [ 103 , 104 , 105 ].…”

Using real-time ascertainment rate estimate from infection and hospitalization dataset for modeling the spread of infectious disease: COVID-19 case study in the Czech Republic

“…In mathematical epidemiology, compartmental models of type SIR or SEIR are widely used to describe and explain outbreaks of epidemics [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. The classical SEIR models monitor compartments (i) S Susceptible individuals (those who have not yet been infected by the disease and may become so), (ii) E Exposed individuals (those in the incubation period), (iii) I Infectious individuals (those able to spread the disease) and (iv) R Recovered/Removed individuals (those who cannot become infectious anymore; they are either recovered or deceased).…”

Basic reproduction number projection for novel pandemics and variants. Ancestral SARS-CoV2 R0 projection

“…Susceptible implies capable of contracting a pathogen, infected implies capable of replicating and spreading the pathogen and removed refers to either recovery (expulsion of the pathogen and immunity) or death. Additional compartments [1,49] and stratified or heterogenous populations [50][51][52][53] result in more sophisticated deterministic, compartment models.…”