Sea Surface Temperature Variability: Patterns and Mechanisms

Deser, Clara; Alexander, Michael A.; Xie, Shang‐Ping; Phillips, Adam S.

doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-120408-151453

Cited by 902 publications

(823 citation statements)

References 108 publications

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“…However, the mechanisms behind these oscillatory modes are not fully understood. Especially, the contribution of different latitudes and ocean basins is still highly controversial, mixing processes such as advection, convection and teleconnections (Deser et al, 2010). While we do not provide information concerning the underlying physics of the common oscillatory modes found for the European LST and Atlantic SST, our results suggest an important influence of the SLP as a main component in the SST/LST relationship; however, physical explanations for the connection between the SST and LST are not yet clear.…”

Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarkscontrasting

confidence: 80%

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Variability of the monthly European temperature and its association with the Atlantic sea‐surface temperature from interannual to multidecadal scales

Gámiz‐Fortis

Esteban‐Parra

Pozo-Vázquez

et al. 2010

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:The relationships between the main patterns of variability of the Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and the European land-surface temperatures (LSTs) at interannual-to-multidecadal time scales are investigated along the period 1872-2004. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used firstly to obtain the main spatio-temporal patterns of variability of the LSTs and SSTs. Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) is then used to decompose the time series associated with these patterns into nonlinear trends and quasi-periodic oscillations, searching for common oscillatory modes to the SSTs and LSTs. The potential predictability of the LSTs based on the SSTs is also analysed. Regarding the SSA results, three robust oscillations of periods around 13.7, 7.5 and 5.2 years, present both in the Atlantic SSTs and north-western European LSTs, were isolated. These oscillations were found to be associated mainly with a quadripolar SST pattern in the North Atlantic region, usually related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) atmospheric mode of variability. The predictability study revealed that the SSTs of the Atlantic Ocean are able to account for about 12% of the north-western European LSTs variance. Additionally, an oscillatory component with period around 3.6 years was identified, but no significant connection between SST and LST was found for this mode. In addition, at this time scale, we find that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is leading the Atlantic SST quadripolar pattern by 6 months. Finally, the analysis of the nonlinear trends showed the presence of oscillations with periods around 60-100 years, both in the SSTs and LSTs. At these later time scales, our results reveal that the multidecadal behaviour of the southern European LSTs is related to Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during the period 1872-1940, unlike the northern and eastern European LSTs, while, during the period 1941-2004, the AMO sign seems to be present in whole Europe.

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Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarkscontrasting

confidence: 80%

“…The highest loading factors are found between the equator and 30°S latitude. This equatorial mode is called the Atlantic Niño and shows strongest amplitude during May-July (Deser et al, 2010). The associated PC series (SST1 hereinafter, Figure 4(a)) presents some short periods with trends and considerable variability.…”

Section: Atlantic Sst Variationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability of the monthly European temperature and its association with the Atlantic sea‐surface temperature from interannual to multidecadal scales

Gámiz‐Fortis

Esteban‐Parra

Pozo-Vázquez

et al. 2010

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The SST variability in the NPR is generally characterized by strong atmosphere-ocean variations (Trenberth and Hurrell 1994) and this variability is best described as a combination of multiple physical modes (Deser et al 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of atmospheric internal variability on the prediction skill of interannual North Pacific sea-surface temperatures

Narapusetty

2017

Theor Appl Climatol

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The sensitivity of the sea-surface temperature (SST) prediction skill to the atmospheric internal variability (weather noise) in the North Pacific (20 • -60 • N;120 • E-80 • W) on decadal timescales is examined using state-ofthe-art Climate Forecasting System model version 2 (CFS) and a variation of CFS in an Interactive Ensemble approach (CFSIE), wherein six copies of atmospheric components with different perturbed initial states of CFS are coupled with the same ocean model by exchanging heat, momentum and fresh water fluxes dynamically at the air-sea interface throughout the model integrations. The CFSIE experiments are designed to reduce weather noise and using a few ten-year long forecasts this study shows that reduction in weather noise leads to lower SST forecast skill. To understand the pathways that cause the reduced SST prediction skill, two twenty-year long forecasts produced with CFS and CFSIE for 1980-2000 are analyzed for the ocean subsurface characteristics that influence SST due to the reduction in weather noise in the North Pacific. The heat budget analysis in the oceanic mixed layer across the North Pacific reveals that weather noise significantly impacts the heat transport in the oceanic mixed layer. In the CFSIE forecasts, the reduced weather noise leads to increased variations

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“…Reasons include the proximity of two oceanographically independent basins (Atlantic and Pacific), and the presence of many different regional oceanographic regimes and ecological provinces (tropical oceans, coastal upwelling, major currents boundaries, etc.). In this regard, large part of the study region is in the transition between tropical and subtropical climate regimes, and exposed to large-scale modes of natural variability, such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and their interactions in time and space (Falvey and Garreaud, 2009;Deser et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent trends in sea surface temperature off Mexico

et al. 2013

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RESUMENLos cambios de temperatura promedio del océano a nivel global tienen el potencial de afectar negativamente los sistemas naturales y socioeconómicos actuales; sin embargo, los registros para proyectar las tendencias de cambio a nivel regional son escasos y, en algunos casos, contradictorios. En este estudio se analizan las señales de cambio de la temperatura superficial en mares mexicanos, y se comparan con otras regiones del planeta y con indicadores climáticos clave, tanto del Pacífico Norte como de la franja tropical en el Atlántico y el Pacífico. Se identificaron ocho regiones con diferente exposición a la variabilidad climática: en el Pacífico, la costa occidental de la península de Baja California no muestra una tendencia clara, el Golfo de California exhibe una tendencia modesta de enfriamiento durante los últimos 20 a 25 años, en la parte más oceánica del Pacífico mexicano se nota una tendencia intensa de enfriamiento, la región más tropical muestra una tendencia intensa de calentamiento, y entre ambas regiones se forma una banda de transición sin tendencia; en el Atlántico, la parte noreste del Golfo de México muestra una tendencia de enfriamiento, en tanto que la parte oeste, junto con el Caribe, se han estado calentando por lo menos durante los últimos 30 años. Se analizan las interacciones potenciales de estas tendencias con algunas pesquerías principales y la presencia de ecosistemas costeros sensibles. ABSTRACTChanges in global mean sea surface temperature may have potential negative implications for natural and socioeconomic systems; however, measurements to predict trends in different regions have been limited and sometimes contradictory. In this study, an assessment of sea surface temperature change signals in the seas off Mexico is presented and compared to other regions and the world ocean, and to selected basin scale climatic indices of the North Pacific, the Atlantic and the tropical Pacific variability. We identified eight regions with 538 S. E. Lluch-Cota et al. different exposure to climate variability: In the Pacific, the west coast of the Baja California peninsula with mostly no trend, the Gulf of California with a modest cooling trend during the last 20 to 25 years, the oceanic area with the most intense recent cooling trend, the southern part showing an intense warming trend, and a band of no trend setting the boundary between North-Pacific and tropical-Pacific variability patterns; in the Atlantic, the northeast Gulf of Mexico shows cooling, while the western Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean have been warming for more than three decades. Potential interactions with fisheries and coastal sensitive ecosystems are discussed.

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Sea Surface Temperature Variability: Patterns and Mechanisms

Cited by 902 publications

References 108 publications

Variability of the monthly European temperature and its association with the Atlantic sea‐surface temperature from interannual to multidecadal scales

Variability of the monthly European temperature and its association with the Atlantic sea‐surface temperature from interannual to multidecadal scales

The role of atmospheric internal variability on the prediction skill of interannual North Pacific sea-surface temperatures

Recent trends in sea surface temperature off Mexico

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