Sea-level rise will likely accelerate rock coast cliff retreat rates

Shadrick, Jennifer R.; Rood, Dylan H.; Hurst, Martin D.; Piggott, Matthew D.; Hebditch, Bethany G.; Seal, Alexander J.; Wilcken, Klaus M.

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-34386-3

Cited by 20 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…Bray and Hooke (1997) have already pointed out that changes in environmental conditions due to climate change and sea‐level rise may accelerate the retreat of sedimentary cliffs. In the same vein, Shadrick et al (2022) have shown that cliff erosion will increase by 2100, given current projections of sea level rise and waves attacking coastal cliffs, causing them to retreat towards the land, posing an immediate threat to human life, property and infrastructure, as observed at Pacheco Beach.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Long‐term and short‐term analysis of shoreline change and cliff retreat on Brazilian equatorial coast

Leisner,

de Paula,

Alves

et al. 2023

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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Assessing historical changes in the shoreline and retreat of cliffs is essential for understanding the evolution and behaviour of specific coastal systems. The present study focused on shoreline changes and cliff base retreat trends at different time scales (annual/decadal) along a 680‐m stretch of Pacheco Beach (Caucaia, Northeast Brazil), which are characterized by coastal erosion and mass movements that have posed risks to residents and visitors to this beach. Shoreline position data were obtained through images collected by satellites and field campaigns for precision mapping through unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) photogrammetry. The spatiotemporal variations of the shoreline were acquired through an extension of the ArcGIS Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) and the linear regression rate (LRR) statistical method that reflects the variations that have occurred in the coastal segment. The long‐term results show constant erosion patterns in the study area, with a shoreline retreat of −31 m in the last 17 years at an average rate of −1.8 m/year. In the short term, the average rate of retreat between May 2021 and Jan 2022 was −2.9 m, indicating that 88.78% of the evaluated section was in a continuous process of erosion. Several factors and processes cause the short‐term rates to be more severe than historical rates, demonstrating the stochastic nature of the Pacheco Beach cliff system. This research provides essential data for understanding and predicting shoreline changes on different time scales, thereby contributing to the identification and zoning of unstable cliffs and allowing for the mapping of risk areas to direct coastal management strategies.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Long‐term and short‐term analysis of shoreline change and cliff retreat on Brazilian equatorial coast

Leisner,

de Paula,

Alves

et al. 2023

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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“…The comparatively low inundation hazard may be attributable to the higher topographic elevations, lower rates of land subsidence and relatively low rates of geocentric SLR on the Pacific coast relative to the Atlantic and Gulf coasts 30 . Although the inundation hazard for Pacific coast communities (California’s coast) by 2050 is relatively modest, rock coast cliff retreat 31 and the projected increase in the high-tide flooding 3 are further factors that would affect some coastal residents and properties.…”

Section: Pacific Coastmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disappearing cities on US coasts

Ohenhen,

Shirzaei,

Ojha

et al. 2024

Nature

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The sea level along the US coastlines is projected to rise by 0.25–0.3 m by 2050, increasing the probability of more destructive flooding and inundation in major cities1–3. However, these impacts may be exacerbated by coastal subsidence—the sinking of coastal land areas4—a factor that is often underrepresented in coastal-management policies and long-term urban planning2,5. In this study, we combine high-resolution vertical land motion (that is, raising or lowering of land) and elevation datasets with projections of sea-level rise to quantify the potential inundated areas in 32 major US coastal cities. Here we show that, even when considering the current coastal-defence structures, further land area of between 1,006 and 1,389 km2 is threatened by relative sea-level rise by 2050, posing a threat to a population of 55,000–273,000 people and 31,000–171,000 properties. Our analysis shows that not accounting for spatially variable land subsidence within the cities may lead to inaccurate projections of expected exposure. These potential consequences show the scale of the adaptation challenge, which is not appreciated in most US coastal cities.

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“…In addition, exploring postglacial RSL change informs us about modern coastal morphodynamics. Any RSL framework would imply either transgressive (intermediate-field) or regressive (far-field) conditions during the Holocene with implications for contemporary coastal change (Shadrick et al, 2022; Nienhuis et al, 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Holocene relative sea-level changes along the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of northwestern South America

Paniagua-Arroyave,

Spada,

Melini

et al. 2024

Quat. res.

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Predicting coastal change depends upon our knowledge of postglacial relative sea-level variability, partly controlled by glacio-isostatic responses to ice-sheet melting. Here, we reconstruct the postglacial relative sea-level changes along the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of northwestern South America by numerically solving the sea-level equation with two scenarios of mantle viscosity: global standard average and high viscosity. Our results with the standard model (applicable to the Pacific coast) agree with earlier studies by indicating a mid-Northgrippian high stand of ~2 m. The high-viscosity simulation (relevant to the Caribbean coast) shows that the transition from far- to intermediate-field influence of the Laurentide Ice Sheet occurs between Manzanillo del Mar and the Gulf of Morrosquillo. South of this location, the Colombian Caribbean coast has exhibited a still stand with a nearly constant Holocene relative sea level. By analyzing our simulations considering sea-level indicators, we argue that tectonics is more prominent than previously assumed, especially along the Caribbean coast. This influence prevents a simplified view of regional relative sea-level changes on the northwestern South American coast.

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Sea-level rise will likely accelerate rock coast cliff retreat rates

Cited by 20 publications

References 65 publications

Long‐term and short‐term analysis of shoreline change and cliff retreat on Brazilian equatorial coast

Long‐term and short‐term analysis of shoreline change and cliff retreat on Brazilian equatorial coast

Disappearing cities on US coasts

Holocene relative sea-level changes along the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of northwestern South America

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