Screening for carotid atherosclerosis: development and validation of a high-precision risk scoring tool

Abstract

ObjectiveThis study aimed to investigate the prevalence of carotid atherosclerosis (CAS), especially among seniors, and develop a precise risk assessment tool to facilitate screening and early intervention for high-risk individuals.MethodsA comprehensive approach was employed, integrating traditional epidemiological methods with advanced machine learning techniques, including support vector machines, XGBoost, decision trees, random forests, and logistic regression.ResultsAmong 1,515 participants, CAS prevalence reached 57.4%, concentrated within older individuals. Positive correlations were identified with age, systolic blood pressure, a history of hypertension, male gender, and total cholesterol. High-density lipoprotein (HDL) emerged as a protective factor against CAS, with total cholesterol and HDL levels proving significant predictors.ConclusionsThis research illuminates the risk factors linked to CAS and introduces a validated risk scoring tool, highlighted by the logistic classifier's consistent performance during training and testing. This tool shows potential for pinpointing high-risk individuals in community health programs, streamlining screening and intervention by clinical physicians. By stressing the significance of managing cholesterol levels, especially HDL, our findings provide actionable insights for CAS prevention. Nonetheless, rigorous validation is paramount to guarantee its practicality and efficacy in real-world scenarios.