Rescaling the legal dimensions of grey zones: Evidence from Ukraine

Abstract

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 ended the hybrid stage of conflict that emerged in 2014, following the Russian illegal annexation of Crimea and proxy aggression in East Ukraine. Empirical data demonstrate a two‐fold interplay between grey zone strategies and applicable rules. ‘Lawfare’ instruments affect jus ad bellum, permitting multiple political choices and the deployment of different means of hybrid warfare. A grey zone conflict itself develops conflicting and overlapping sets of rules supported by different actors. Eventually, additional rules may emerge due to the actions or interactions of conflicting parties; these rules focus on conflict management or settlement.

Black Sea Grain Initiative is Dead, Long Live the New Trade Corridor

“…3 of the Initiative) and made statements of "ongoing crisis in the supply chains and disruptions in the logistics sector" (Preamble of Memorandum) without addressing its cause. In this regard, the BSGI followed pre-war Russo-Ukrainian settlement attempts, in which instruments enveloped a political deal in a formal language acceptable to all parties even though such wording was deliberately vague or ignored specific facts (Kormych et al, 2023). In particular, this allowed Russia to exploit gaps in the BSGI provisions to slow down Ukrainian grain exports, from creating artificial delays in the inspection of vessels to completely stalling vessel movement (Ministry for Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Development of Ukraine, 2023).…”