<scp>COVID</scp>‐19, trade collapse and <scp>GVC</scp> linkages: European experience

Kejžar, Katja Zajc; Velić, Alan; Damijan, Jože P.

doi:10.1111/twec.13314

Cited by 43 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…As a result, exports from one country might have been used by companies in other countries more frequently for the purpose of generating additional exports. The amount of foreign intermediate inputs used by domestic enterprises to produce exports, on the other hand, decreased considerably (Bas et al , 2022; Berthou and Stumpner, 2022; Kejzar et al , 2022; Liu et al , 2021; Che et al , 2020). Therefore, supply chain changes brought about by the COVID-19 epidemic more negatively affected imports from the Asia Pacific region than exports, with some other nations being less severely affected.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additionally, aggressive policy actions in the form of lockdowns severely restricted worker movement, including those needed to unload cargo at ports. The practise and execution of stringent regulations generally had a negative impact on the global supply chain because more health and safety regulations raised transaction costs (Kejzar et al , 2022; Liu et al , 2021).…”

Section: Results Of Jks Panel Causality Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

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COVID-19 pandemic and trade flows: empirical evidence from selected Asian Pacific countries

Bhat,

Wani,

Amin

et al. 2023

JCEFTS

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Purpose This paper aims to investigate the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on trade flows in Asia Pacific countries and explores the causality between COVID-19-related shocks and trade. Design/methodology/approach The authors used two novel techniques, namely, two-stage instrumental-variables (2SIV) approach and Juodis, Karavias and Sarafids (JKS) causality test, to examine trade dynamics in the Asia Pacific region during the pandemic. Findings Using the monthly trade data of 17 Asia Pacific countries between January 2020 and December 2021, the results were threefold. Firstly, the empirical analysis showed that during the COVID-19 crisis, the flow of exports tended to persist idiosyncratically in comparison to the flow of imports. In particular, a specific finding was that the persistence level in exports was about 20%–25% higher than that in imports. Secondly, the authors found that the past values of COVID-19 cases and COVID-19 deaths contain information that helps to predict exports/imports over and above the information contained in the past values of exports/imports alone. Finally, the study established that the government response and stringency indexes have a Granger-causal relationship with exports and imports. Research limitations/implications For the foreseeable future, these findings have significant policy ramifications. Firstly, if a COVID-19 crisis-like situation emerges in the future, it will be critical for countries to maintain their competitiveness throughout the crisis, like the COVID-19 pandemic, while also rebuilding trade relationships wherever possible. Secondly, because information about government responses and measures can also be used to predict future trade flows, prudent management of government responses and stringent measures will be necessary in a crisis like COVID-19 to achieve the optimum level of exports and imports. At the same time, the trading partners should give up the idea of trade protection and focus on finding a way to balance the conflicting needs of imports and exports. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the authors, for the first time, used a 2SIV approach and JKS causality test to examine trade dynamics in the Asia Pacific region during the pandemic. In addition, the authors present the first comprehensive analysis of the evolving relationships between export and import flows and governmental policy responses under COVID-19. As a result, it contributes uniquely to both public and international economics.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Results Of Jks Panel Causality Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 pandemic and trade flows: empirical evidence from selected Asian Pacific countries

Bhat,

Wani,

Amin

et al. 2023

JCEFTS

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…A major trade collapse, even larger than that of the previous crisis has taken place as a result of the containment policies adopted by governments to combat the pandemic, which have led to a drastic reduction in global production and consumption. Kejzar et al (2022) find an overall decline of over 20% in trade between EU countries following the COVID-19 outbreak. Both supply and demand shocks are shown to contribute to this trade decline associated with COVID-19 in the origin and destination countries.…”

Section: Services Offshoring and Reshoringmentioning

confidence: 93%

Does Reshoring Generate Employment? A Study on Services Reshoring and Its Intra- and Inter-Sectoral Components

Fuster,

Martínez-Mora,

Lillo-Bañuls

2023

SAGE Open

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The aim of this paper is to deepen the analysis of services reshoring in the Spanish services sector, both as a whole and for its constituent elements, examining both intra- and inter-sectoral components. Likewise, it analyzes the impact of this strategy on employment in the services sector, also differentiating between broad reshoring, intra-sectoral reshoring and inter-sectoral reshoring. The data used come from the Input-Output Tables of the Spanish National Accounts published since 2000. The results show Spanish service companies significantly reduced their contracting of activities abroad between 2008 and 2010, substituting foreign intermediate services for domestic services. This process of reshoring is observed with greater intensity in inputs of the same sector. However, since 2010 Spanish service companies have slightly increased their contracting of foreign services per unit of output, adopting new services offshoring strategies, although to a lesser extent than in the period prior to the recession. In the analysis of the effect of reshoring on services employment can be concluded that services reshoring has not generated employment in the Spanish service sector.

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“…First, data reporting quality for LIFDCs is problematic because most LIFDCs report less comprehensive trade data that suffer from significant reporting delays and errors (Manners and Behar, 2009). Second, lockdown orders disrupted global supply chains in many exporting countries, while importing countries have also been hurt by domestic supply chain disruptions (Zajc Kejžar et al, 2022). Therefore, this study uses exports to LIFDCs to measure the trade effect of COVID-19 lockdown orders.…”

Section: Empirical Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agri-food trade resilience among food-deficit countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

Ahn

Steinbach

2023

IFAM

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This paper examines the trade resilience of low-income and food-deficit countries (LIFDCs) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the pandemic declaration, LIFDCs have faced unique challenges due to their heavy reliance on food imports. This paper identifies the differential trade effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on agri-food exports to LIFDCs using a dynamic treatment effects model and monthly product-level agri-food trade data. The baseline results show a sharp decrease in agri-food exports to LIFDCs in the first three months after the pandemic declaration and a gradual recovery afterward. Additional analyses at the product and country levels show that LIFDCs focused on securing cereal products from foreign sources and that imports of other agri-food products contracted considerably relative to the counterfactual. The foreign supply chains of LIFDCs were less resilient in the first quarter after the treatment than those of other low-income countries, but their recovery was also faster than in those other countries. The paper provides the empirical underpinning for concerns raised by international organizations regarding the resilience of agri-food supply chains and COVID-19 containment measures, revealing the differential impact that lockdowns had on agri-food trade resilience in the developing world.

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COVID‐19, trade collapse and GVC linkages: European experience

Cited by 43 publications

References 37 publications

COVID-19 pandemic and trade flows: empirical evidence from selected Asian Pacific countries

COVID-19 pandemic and trade flows: empirical evidence from selected Asian Pacific countries

Does Reshoring Generate Employment? A Study on Services Reshoring and Its Intra- and Inter-Sectoral Components

Agri-food trade resilience among food-deficit countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

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