<scp>COVID</scp>‐19: test, trace and <scp>isolate‐new</scp> epidemiological data

Brüssow, Harald

doi:10.1111/1462-2920.15118

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Significant uncertainty, however, exists about the effectiveness of any of these plans [21,23,31,33]. The best current diagnostic tests have variable and poor clinical sensitivity [25,34] and turnaround delays, while incubation from the time of exposure to becoming symptomatic averages 3-5 days [35][36][37]. Furthermore, an estimated 30%-40% of positive individuals never exhibit symptoms [25,34,35], and on-campus compliance to distancing precautions generally is low [25,30,38,39].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The best current diagnostic tests have variable and poor clinical sensitivity [25,34] and turnaround delays, while incubation from the time of exposure to becoming symptomatic averages 3-5 days [35][36][37]. Furthermore, an estimated 30%-40% of positive individuals never exhibit symptoms [25,34,35], and on-campus compliance to distancing precautions generally is low [25,30,38,39]. Contact tracing, while helpful, may not work as well for COVID-19 given the above [9,33] and may be further limited in the campus context as students interact with many-fold more individuals (many unknowingly or unknown by name).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Community and Campus COVID-19 Risk Uncertainty Under University Reopening Scenarios: Model-Based Analysis

Benneyan¹,

Gehrke²,

Ilieş³

et al. 2021

JMIR Public Health Surveill

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Background Significant uncertainty has existed about the safety of reopening college and university campuses before the COVID-19 pandemic is better controlled. Moreover, little is known about the effects that on-campus students may have on local higher-risk communities. Objective We aimed to estimate the range of potential community and campus COVID-19 exposures, infections, and mortality under various university reopening plans and uncertainties. Methods We developed campus-only, community-only, and campus × community epidemic differential equations and agent-based models, with inputs estimated via published and grey literature, expert opinion, and parameter search algorithms. Campus opening plans (spanning fully open, hybrid, and fully virtual approaches) were identified from websites and publications. Additional student and community exposures, infections, and mortality over 16-week semesters were estimated under each scenario, with 10% trimmed medians, standard deviations, and probability intervals computed to omit extreme outliers. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to inform potential effective interventions. Results Predicted 16-week campus and additional community exposures, infections, and mortality for the base case with no precautions (or negligible compliance) varied significantly from their medians (4- to 10-fold). Over 5% of on-campus students were infected after a mean of 76 (SD 17) days, with the greatest increase (first inflection point) occurring on average on day 84 (SD 10.2 days) of the semester and with total additional community exposures, infections, and mortality ranging from 1-187, 13-820, and 1-21 per 10,000 residents, respectively. Reopening precautions reduced infections by 24%-26% and mortality by 36%-50% in both populations. Beyond campus and community reproductive numbers, sensitivity analysis indicated no dominant factors that interventions could primarily target to reduce the magnitude and variability in outcomes, suggesting the importance of comprehensive public health measures and surveillance. Conclusions Community and campus COVID-19 exposures, infections, and mortality resulting from reopening campuses are highly unpredictable regardless of precautions. Public health implications include the need for effective surveillance and flexible campus operations.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Community and Campus COVID-19 Risk Uncertainty Under University Reopening Scenarios: Model-Based Analysis

Benneyan¹,

Gehrke²,

Ilieş³

et al. 2021

JMIR Public Health Surveill

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…21,23,27,[30][31][32] Significant uncertainty, however, exists about the effectiveness of any of these plans. 21,33,23,31 The best current diagnostic tests have variable and poor clinical sensitivity to detect positive individuals, 25,34 an estimated 30-40% of all positive individuals never exhibit symptoms or may not know (or admit) they are infectious, 25,34,35 incubation delays from exposure to symptomatic average 3-5 days, [35][36][37] sufficient student compliance to social distancing precautions on-campus and socially may be unlikely, 25,30,38,39 and student policy enforcement has rarely been successful across history. Contact tracing, while effective for other diseases and while certainly helpful for reducing risk here, nonetheless does not work nearly as well for Covid-19 given the above 9,33 and may be further limited in school settings in which an average student may interact with many-fold more individuals (many unknowingly or unknown by name) than more typical applications.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…21 Numerous social gatherings of college-age students during summer 2020 also have resulted in outbreaks, 38,58,59 including events and activities students were advised against but brazenly participated in nonetheless. 30,38 Despite early uncertainty about infectivity by age, increasing evidence is emerging that student-aged individuals readily can carry and transmit SARS-CoV-2 35,58,60,61 and that significant student-to-student campus spread occurs at college and high school levels 35,58,61 (in contrast to suggestive evidence that less spread occurs among younger students in K-5 classroom settings). 35,47,61,62 The impacts of campus outbreaks on spread to other populations in the surrounding community, with higher percentages of at-risk individuals, has been less reported on beyond hypothetical conjecture and individual anecdotes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Significant uncertainty, however, exists about the effectiveness of any of these plans. 21,33,23,31 The best current diagnostic tests have variable and poor clinical sensitivity, 25,34 an estimated 30-40% of positive individuals never exhibit symptoms, 25,34,35 incubation delays from exposure to symptomatic average 3-5 days, 35-37 and on-campus compliance to distancing precautions. 25,30,38,39 Contact tracing, while helpful, may not work as well for Covid-19 given the above 9,33 and may be further limited here as students interact with many-fold more individuals (many un-knowingly or unknown by name).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Potential Community and Campus Covid-19 Outcomes Under University and College Reopening Scenarios

Benneyan

Gehrke

Ilieş

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: Significant uncertainty exists about the safety of, and best strategies for, reopening colleges and universities while the Covid-19 pandemic is not well-controlled. Little also is known about the effects that on-campus outbreaks may have on local non-student and/or higher-risk communities. Model-based analysis can help inform decision and policy making across a wide range of assumptions and uncertainties. Objective: To evaluate the potential range of campus and community Covid-19 exposures, infections, and mortality due to various university and college reopening plans and precautions. Methods: We developed and calibrated campus-only, community-only, and campus-x-community epidemic models using standard susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered differential equation and agent-based modeling methods. Input parameters for campus and surrounding communities were estimated via published and grey literature, scenario development, expert opinion, Monte Carlo simulation, and accuracy optimization algorithms; models were cross-validated against each other using February-June 2020 county, state, and country data. Campus opening plans (spanning various fully open, hybrid, and fully virtual approaches) were identified from websites, publications, communications, and surveys. All scenarios were simulated assuming 16-week semesters and best/worst case ranges for disease prevalence among community residents and arriving students, precaution compliance, contact frequency, virus attack rates, and tracing and isolation effectiveness. Day-to-day student and community differences in exposures, infections, and mortality were estimated under each scenario as compared to regular and no re-opening; 10% trimmed medians, standard deviations, and probability intervals were computed to omit extreme outlier scenarios. Factorial analyses were conducted to identify inputs with largest and smallest impacts on outcomes. Results: As a base case, predicted 16-week student infections and mortality under normal operations with no precautions (or no compliance) ranged from 472 to 9,484 (4.7% to 94.8%) and 2 to 61 (0.02% to 0.61%) per 10,000 student population, respectively. In terms of contact tracing and isolation resources, as many as 17 to 1,488 total exposures per 10,000 students could occur on a given day throughout the semester needing to be located, tested, and if warranted quarantined. Attributable total additional predicted community exposures, infections, and mortality ranged from 1 to 187, 13 to 820, and 1 to 21, respectively, assuming the university takes no additional precautions to limit exposure risk. The mean (SD) number of days until 1% and 5% of on-campus students are infected was 11 (3) and 76 (17) days, respectively; 34.8% of replications resulted in more than 10% students infected by semester end. The diffusion first inflection point occurred on average on day 84 (+/- 20 days, 95% interval). Common re-opening precaution strategies reduced the above consequences by 24% to 26% fewer infections (now 360 to 6,976 per 10,000 students) and 36% to 50% fewer deaths (now 1 to 39 per 10,000 students). Perfect testing and immediate quarantining of all students on arrival to campus at semester start further reduced infections by 58% to 95% (now 200 to 468 per 10,000 students) and deaths by 95% to 100% (now 0 to 3 per 10,000 students). Uncertainties in many factors, however, produced tremendous variability in all median estimates, ranging by -67% to +370%. Conclusions: Consequences of reopening college and university physical campuses on student and community Covid-19 exposures, infections, and mortality are very highly unpredictable, depending on a combination of random chance, controllable (e.g. physical layouts), and uncontrollable (e.g. human behavior) factors. Important implications at government and academic institution levels include clear needs for specific criteria to adapt campus operations mid-semester, methods to detect when this is necessary, and well-executed contingency plans for doing so.

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“And then came COVID-19”: Manitoban reflections on the emergence of the pandemic.

Reynolds¹

2021

Canadian Psychology / Psychologie canadienne

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The growing body of research on COVID-19 has demonstrated physical, mental, social, and financial impacts on global populations. There is an absence of research, told through the unique voices of the general public, during early, critical stages of the emergence of the pandemic and pandemic-related restrictions, describing Canadians’ experiences. The Winnipeg Free Press sent out a public call through their print and online journal for personal reflections related to COVID-19 starting on March 22, 2020. A total of 44 reflections were published in this column (March 28–April 24, 2020). Authors de-identified and compiled reflections for qualitative analysis using Interpretive Description (Thorne, Interpretive Description, 2008, Left Coast Press). Reflections were written by a range of Manitobans, including health care workers, teachers, childcare workers, business owners, grandparents, mothers, fathers, daughters, travelers, veterans, young adults, and older adults. The central theme, “And then came COVID-19,” was highlighted across writers’ reflections, describing the sudden and significant impact of the pandemic on many facets of life. Following from this central, overarching theme are four related themes describing: Longing for normalcy; Layers of uncertainty; Lack of support; and “Hardy Winnipeggers”: How are we coping? Findings contribute to a significant gap in our understanding concerning early COVID-19 experiences in Canada and offer insight regarding needs for educational and health-related supports.

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COVID‐19: test, trace and isolate‐new epidemiological data

Cited by 9 publications

References 59 publications

Community and Campus COVID-19 Risk Uncertainty Under University Reopening Scenarios: Model-Based Analysis

Community and Campus COVID-19 Risk Uncertainty Under University Reopening Scenarios: Model-Based Analysis

Potential Community and Campus Covid-19 Outcomes Under University and College Reopening Scenarios

“And then came COVID-19”: Manitoban reflections on the emergence of the pandemic.

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