<scp>4D</scp> marine conservation networks: Combining <scp>3D</scp> prioritization of present and future biodiversity with climatic refugia

Doxa, Aggeliki; Almpanidou, Vasiliki; Katsanevakis, Stelios; Queirós, Ana M.; Kaschner, Kristin; Garilao, Cristina; Reyes, Kathleen; Mazaris, Antonios D.

doi:10.1111/gcb.16268

Cited by 13 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…Relying only on estimations of sea surface temperature ignores the possibility of species to find thermal refuges in deeper waters. We also tried to account for possible effects of the accuracy of distribution data used in our analysis, considering each species as present only for cells having a probability of occurrence of 0.5 or higher, which is a commonly used threshold for Aquamaps (e.g., see Brito‐Morales et al, 2020; Doxa et al, 2022).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some examples are the highly commercial Atlantic bluefin tuna Thunnus thynnus , the common dentex Dentex dentex , and the critically endangered common goby Pomatoschistus microps . Therefore, strategic, climate‐smart spatial planning and management is needed to cope with the combined effects of anthropogenic stressors and climate change (Almpanidou et al, 2021; Doxa et al, 2022). The governance of fisheries in the era of climate change should support a flexible, adaptive, and well‐informed ecosystem‐based management aiming to face environmental change and provide long‐term yields with reduced risks of stock collapse (Bastardie et al, 2022).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Are Mediterranean marine threatened species at high risk by climate change?

Chatzimentor

Doxa

Katsanevakis

et al. 2023

Global Change Biology

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Rapid anthropogenic climate change is driving threatened biodiversity one step closer to extinction. Effects on native biodiversity are determined by an interplay between species' exposure to climate change and their specific ecological and life‐history characteristics that render them even more susceptible. Impacts on biodiversity have already been reported, however, a systematic risk evaluation of threatened marine populations is lacking. Here, we employ a trait‐based approach to assess the risk of 90 threatened marine Mediterranean species to climate change, combining species' exposure to increased sea temperature and intrinsic vulnerability. One‐quarter of the threatened marine biodiversity of the Mediterranean Sea is predicted to be under elevated levels of climate risk, with various traits identified as key vulnerability traits. High‐risk taxa including sea turtles, marine mammals, Anthozoa and Chondrichthyes are highlighted. Climate risk, vulnerability and exposure hotspots are distributed along the Western Mediterranean, Alboran, Aegean, and Adriatic Seas. At each Mediterranean marine ecoregion, 21%–31% of their threatened species have high climate risk. All Mediterranean marine protected areas host threatened species with high risk to climate change, with 90% having a minimum of 4 up to 19 species of high climate risk, making the objective of a climate‐smart conservation strategy a crucial task for immediate planning and action. Our findings aspire to offer new insights for systematic, spatially strategic planning and prioritization of vulnerable marine life in the face of accelerating climate change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are Mediterranean marine threatened species at high risk by climate change?

Chatzimentor

Doxa

Katsanevakis

et al. 2023

Global Change Biology

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“…Climatic variability could provide a wider range of local climates within a small area, while microclimatic gradients could offer a way for species to counterbalance changing conditions through short-distance migration (Morelli et al 2016). Climatic heterogeneity has been also related to increased species richness (Stein et al 2014;Wilson et al 2020) and considered as a crucial aspect for delineating climatic refugia across seascape (Ackerly et al 2020;Doxa et al 2022). Thus, the limited future variability that we found here could also diminish the opportunities for marine species with various thermal niches and different thermal preferences to be able to capture the optimal conditions within the boundaries of the existing MPAs (Bruno et al 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing 3-D climatic stability of world’s marine protected areas

Kyprioti

Doxa²,

Almpanidou

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Assessing whether marine protected areas (MPAs) will maintain stable climatic conditions over time is a major scientific challenge. Yet, such assessments often rely on sea surface temperature data, largely ignoring the vertical dimension of the ocean environment. Here, we estimated the climate space of global marine protected sites and investigated how their key spatial properties, such as surface, latitude, longitude and bathymetry, can be proxies of climatic resilience. We calculated the present and future climate space of each marine protected site by considering an n-dimensional hypervolume approach. We produced (i) 2D hypervolumes, by using only sea surface temperature data and (ii) 3D hypervolumes, by considering both surface and bottom temperature data. Our analyses projected that the vast majority of global marine sites under protection would encounter detrimental changes in their climate space, even enclosing completely novel climatic conditions by 2050. We observed that very large (over 100,000 km2), open sea marine protected sites were expected to maintain higher stability of their 2D climate space in the future, revealing potential implications for marine biodiversity largely depending on surface conditions. However, the 3D hypervolume analysis produced even more alarming results about the limited climatic stability patterns within marine protected sites and the reduction of their climate space within the following decades. Our study underlines that climate smart conservation planning is a necessity towards filling ocean conservation gaps over space and time.

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“…Climate warming primarily drives species range shifts (Chaudhary et al, 2021; Lenoir et al, 2020; Parmesan & Yohe, 2003) and changes in communities (Burrows et al, 2019), which can cause species to move beyond boundaries of protected areas (Heikkinen et al, 2020; Loarie et al, 2009). Thus, protected area design needs to explicitly account for climate exposure and species retention (Doxa et al, 2022; Harris et al, 2019). However, there is currently little consensus on how to implement this goal (Tittensor et al, 2019; Wilson et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Such metrics can be used to identify climate refugia (Sandel et al, 2011) that can be incorporated in spatial prioritization—the structured process of identifying protected areas for conservation (Harris et al, 2019). By designing protected area systems that safeguard climate refugia, conservation efforts can help ensure protection of biodiversity in future (Brito‐Morales et al, 2022; Doxa et al, 2022; Jones et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A metric‐based framework for climate‐smart conservation planning

Buenafe

Dunn

Everett

et al. 2023

Ecological Applications

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Climate change is already having profound effects on biodiversity, but climate change adaptation has yet to be fully incorporated into area-based management tools used to conserve biodiversity, such as protected areas. One main obstacle is the lack of consensus regarding how impacts of climate change can be included in spatial conservation plans. We propose a climate-smart framework that prioritizes the protection of climate refugia-areas of low climate exposure and high biodiversity retention-using climate metrics. We explore

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4D marine conservation networks: Combining 3D prioritization of present and future biodiversity with climatic refugia

Cited by 13 publications

References 65 publications

Are Mediterranean marine threatened species at high risk by climate change?

Are Mediterranean marine threatened species at high risk by climate change?

Assessing 3-D climatic stability of world’s marine protected areas

A metric‐based framework for climate‐smart conservation planning

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