Scoping future outbreaks: a scoping review on the outbreak prediction of the WHO Blueprint list of priority diseases

Abstract

BackgroundThe WHO’s Research and Development Blueprint priority list designates emerging diseases with the potential to generate public health emergencies for which insufficient preventive solutions exist. The list aims to reduce the time to the availability of resources that can avert public health crises. The current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic illustrates that an effective method of mitigating such crises is the pre-emptive prediction of outbreaks. This scoping review thus aimed to map and identify the evidence available to predict future outbreaks of the Blueprint diseases.MethodsWe conducted a scoping review of PubMed, Embase and Web of Science related to the evidence predicting future outbreaks of Ebola and Marburg virus, Zika virus, Lassa fever, Nipah and Henipaviral disease, Rift Valley fever, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, Severe acute respiratory syndrome, Middle East respiratory syndrome and Disease X. Prediction methods, outbreak features predicted and implementation of predictions were evaluated. We conducted a narrative and quantitative evidence synthesis to highlight prediction methods that could be further investigated for the prevention of Blueprint diseases and COVID-19 outbreaks.ResultsOut of 3959 articles identified, we included 58 articles based on inclusion criteria. 5 major prediction methods emerged; the most frequent being spatio-temporal risk maps predicting outbreak risk periods and locations through vector and climate data. Stochastic models were predominant. Rift Valley fever was the most predicted disease. Diseases with complex sociocultural factors such as Ebola were often predicted through multifactorial risk-based estimations. 10% of models were implemented by health authorities. No article predicted Disease X outbreaks.ConclusionsSpatiotemporal models for diseases with strong climatic and vectorial components, as in River Valley fever prediction, may currently best reduce the time to the availability of resources. A wide literature gap exists in the prediction of zoonoses with complex sociocultural and ecological dynamics such as Ebola, COVID-19 and especially Disease X.

Increased Prehospital Emergency Medical Service Time Interval and Nontransport Rate of Patients With Fever Using Emergency Medical Services Before and After COVID-19 in Busan, Korea

“…In the future, infectious diseases such as COVID-19 will likely reemerge. 25 26 Several isolation beds in the ED cannot be a solution because we are already experiencing a barrier when all the isolation beds are occupied. It may be necessary to convert all ED beds into isolation beds to increase ED capacity.…”

Perspectives of Next-Generation Live-Attenuated Rift Valley Fever Vaccines for Animal and Human Use

“…In most countries where RVFV emerged, the virus continues to cause epizootics and epidemics, generally separated by long inter-epizootic/epidemic periods. Stimulated by climate change and globalization, RVFV is expected to continue causing epidemics in previously unaffected regions [ 2 ], following in the footsteps of many other arthropod-borne viruses that have emerged in the past decades, including West Nile virus, Chikungunya virus, Zika virus, Usutu virus, Bluetongue virus, Schmallenberg virus and, most recently, Japanese encephalitis virus. Whereas most of these viruses cause disease in either animals or humans, RVFV is broadly pathogenic to a variety of species and the cause of serious disease in three major livestock taxa (sheep, goats, cattle), camelids, wild ruminants, rodents, and humans.…”

Viral hemorrhagic fevers - a recurrent public health threat

“…The slaughtering and butchering of slaughtered animals poses a particular risk of virus transmission to humans [23]. The area where the infectious disease occurs is wide and includes Europe (Balkans), Africa (mainly central and northeastern) and Asia (western areas of China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Middle East) [27][28][29]. In Europe, human cases of infection have been reported in Albania, Armenia, Bulgaria, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Russia, Serbia, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.…”