Scientific dialogue on climate: is it giving black eyes or opening closed eyes? Reply to “A black eye for the<i>Hydrological Sciences Journal</i>” by D. Huard

Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Christofides, A.; Efstratiadis, Andreas; Anagnostopoulos, George; Mamassis, Nikοs

doi:10.1080/02626667.2011.610759

Cited by 23 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 14 publications

(9 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Models produce more frequent and less intense precipitation. Problems of representation of precipitation in climate models from the viewpoint of hydrology are discussed by Koutsoyiannis et al (2008Koutsoyiannis et al ( , 2011 and Kundzewicz and Stakhiv (2010).…”

Section: Flood-generating Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives

Kundzewicz

Kanae

Seneviratne

et al. 2013

Hydrological Sciences Journal

1,073

570

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A holistic perspective on changing rainfall-driven flood risk is provided for the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Economic losses from floods have greatly increased, principally driven by the expanding exposure of assets at risk. It has not been possible to attribute rain-generated peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change over the past several decades. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall, based on climate models, should contribute to increases in precipitation-generated local flooding (e.g. flash flooding and urban flooding). This article assesses the literature included in the IPCC SREX report and new literature published since, and includes an assessment of changes in flood risk in seven of the regions considered in the recent IPCC SREX report-Africa, Asia, Central and South America, Europe, North America, Oceania and Polar regions. Also considering newer publications, this article is consistent with the recent IPCC SREX assessment finding that the impacts of climate change on flood characteristics are highly sensitive to the detailed nature of Le risque d'inondation et les perspectives de changement climatique mondial et régionalRésumé Cet article trace une perspective globale de l'évolution des risques d'inondation d'origine pluviale pour la fin du 20ème et le début du 21ème siècle. Les pertes économiques dues aux inondations ont fortement augmenté, principalement en raison de l'exposition croissante des actifs à risque. Il n'a pas été possible d'attribuer les tendances de débits de pointe au changement climatique d'origine anthropique au cours des dernières décennies. Les augmentations prévues de la fréquence et de l'intensité des précipitations extrêmes, basées sur des modèles climatiques, devraient contribuer à une augmentation des inondations locales (par exemple, des crues éclairs et des inondations en milieu urbain) provoquées par les pluies. Nous avons évalué la littérature incluse dans le rapport SREX du GIEC et celle qui a été publiée depuis, afin d'estimer l'évolution des risques d'inondation dans les sept régions considérées dans le rapport récent du SREX du GIEC, à savoir l'Afrique, l'Asie, l'Amérique centrale et du Sud, l'Europe, l'Amérique du Nord, l'Océanie et les régions polaires. Tenant compte des publications les plus récentes, le présent article rejoint la récente évaluation SREX du GIEC selon laquelle les impacts du changement climatique sur les caractéristiques des crues sont très sensibles aux détails de ces changements, et qu'à l'heure actuelle nous ne pouvons avoir qu'une confiance limitée dans les projections numériques de l'évolution de l'amplitude ou de la fréquence des inondations résultant du changement climatique.

show abstract

Section: Flood-generating Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives

Kundzewicz

Kanae

Seneviratne

et al. 2013

Hydrological Sciences Journal

1,073

570

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…There is no doubt that climate has ever been changing, as suggested by paleoclimate proxies which show that the climate has never been static . Climate change is certainly a potential driver of hydrological change, but the interaction between climate and hydrology is very complex, and attempts to simulate it through climatic models did not provide satisfactory results . As a consequence, intense research activity has been triggered to correct the climate model results, giving rise to the so‐called downscaling methods …”

Section: Physical Reasons For Hydrological Change Perceptions and Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…29 Climate change is certainly a potential driver of hydrological change, but the interaction between climate and hydrology is very complex, and attempts to simulate it through climatic models did not provide satisfactory results. [30][31][32][33] As a consequence, intense research activity has been triggered to correct the climate model results, giving rise to the so-called downscaling methods. 34 There are other obvious changes that affect the hydrological regime, including increased irrigation demand, land use transformation, and agricultural practices (e.g., use of fertilizers and pesticides), pollution of streams and aquifers as a result of urban activities, and perturbations of the natural water balance through overexploitation of groundwater, resulting in a dramatic lowering of water tables and, in coastal areas, salt water intrusion.…”

Section: Physical Reasons For Hydrological Change Perceptions and Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward a theoretical framework for integrated modeling of hydrological change

2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In an attempt to provide a unified scheme for the simulation of changing behaviors of hydrological systems, a theoretical framework for stationary and non‐stationary modeling is presented. The main triggers for hydrological change are reviewed, their impact on the long‐term properties of the inherent system are analyzed, and theoretical solutions are proposed for their representation. Model calibration is also discussed along with the impact of hydrological change on simulation uncertainty. Non‐stationarity and its simulation are examined as well. We propose a stochastic approach that is general, and allows a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty. The proposed framework is relevant to integrated modeling of hydrology and human impacts and therefore fits into the concepts of ‘Panta Rhei’, the scientific decade 2013–2022 promoted by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences. WIREs Water 2014, 1:427–438. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1038 This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Hydrological Processes Engineering Water > Sustainable Engineering of Water Science of Water > Water and Environmental Change

show abstract

“…However, the information currently available from GCMs is inadequate for most planning and design aspects of water decisions, and certainly not useful for operational decisions related to reservoir regulation rules and short-term forecasting (Kundzewicz andStakhiv 2010, Stakhiv 2010). The studies from Anagnostopoulos et al (2010) and Koutsoyiannis et al (2011) even suggest a paradigm shift towards stochastic approaches instead of using GCMs in establishing policies for the future. In particular, GCMs cannot resolve circulation patterns leading to extreme hydrological events (Christensen andChristensen 2003, Fowler et al 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on extreme precipitation of water supply area in Istanbul: use of ensemble climate modelling and geo-statistical downscaling

Kara

Yücel

Akyürek

2016

Hydrological Sciences Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Numerous statistical downscaling models have been applied to impact studies, but none clearly recommended the most appropriate one for a particular application. This study uses the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method, based on local implications from physical geographical variables, to downscale climate change impacts to a small-scale catchment. The ensembles of daily precipitation time series from 15 different regional climate models (RCMs) driven by five different general circulation models (GCMs), obtained through the European Union (EU)-ENSEMBLES project for reference and future (2071-2100) scenarios are generated for the Omerli catchment, in the east of Istanbul city, Turkey, under scenario A1B climate change projections. Special focus is given to changes in extreme precipitation, since such information is needed to assess the changes in the frequency and intensity of flooding for future climate. The mean daily precipitation from all RCMs is under-represented in the summer, autumn and early winter, but it is overestimated in late winter and spring. The results point to an increase in extreme precipitation in winter, spring and summer, and a decrease in autumn in the future, compared to the current period. The GWR method provides significant modifications (up to 35%) to these changes and agrees on the direction of change from RCMs. The GWR method improves the representation of mean and extreme precipitation compared to RCM outputs and this is more significant, particularly for extreme cases of each season. The return period of extreme events decreases in the future, resulting in higher precipitation depths for a given return period from most of the RCMs. This feature is more significant with downscaling. According to the analysis presented, a new adaption for regulating excessive water under climate change in the Omerli basin may be recommended. ARTICLE HISTORY

show abstract

Scientific dialogue on climate: is it giving black eyes or opening closed eyes? Reply to “A black eye for theHydrological Sciences Journal” by D. Huard

Cited by 23 publications

References 14 publications

Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives

Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives

Toward a theoretical framework for integrated modeling of hydrological change

Climate change impacts on extreme precipitation of water supply area in Istanbul: use of ensemble climate modelling and geo-statistical downscaling

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About