Scientific concepts for an integrated analysis of desertification

Abstract

The Global Drylands Observing System proposed in this issue should reduce the huge uncertainty about the extent of desertification and the rate at which it is changing, and provide valuable information to scientists, planners and policy-makers. However, it needs careful design if information outputs are to be scientifically credible and salient to the needs of people living in dry areas. Its design would benefit from a robust, integrated scientific framework like the Dryland Development Paradigm to guide/inform the development of an integrated global monitoring and assessment programme (both directly and indirectly via the use of modelling). Various types of dryland system models (e.g. environmental, socioeconomic, land-use cover change, and agent-based) could provide insights into how to combine the plethora of monitoring information gathered on key socioeconomic and biophysical indicators to develop integrated assessment models. This paper shows how insights from models can help in selecting and integrating indicators, interpreting synthetic trends, incorporating cross-scalar processes, representing spatio-temporal variation, and evaluating uncertainty. Planners could use this integrated global monitoring and assessment programme to help implement effective policies to address the global problem of desertification.

Agent-based modeling of complex social–ecological feedback loops to assess multi-dimensional trade-offs in dryland ecosystem services

“…The concept of ecosystem services has drawn attention in the past two decades, particularly since the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) report in 2005, as a crucial bridge between human society and the environment (de Groot et al 2010;Reynolds et al 2011;Wu 2013). The MA provided a conceptual framework for holistic approaches that integrate ecological, economic, and institutional perspectives, and aimed to answer policy-relevant questions on the sustainable use of natural resources (MA 2005).…”

“…Further integrated research is therefore needed to better understand and manage ecosystem services, by elucidating the complex, unintended relationships between humans and the environment (Holling 2001;Turner et al 2003;Carpenter et al 2009;Li et al 2015). In this context, coupled human-environment (H-E) systems, also called social-ecological systems, can be a useful integrated analytical framework (Ostrom 2007(Ostrom , 2009; Reynolds et al 2007Reynolds et al , 2011Scholz 2011a). …”

“…Desertification is a classic example of problems in H-E systems (Whitfield et al 2011). Although most desertification estimates have been made solely using either ecological or socioeconomic factors, close relationships between human livelihoods and the environment in drylands indicate the need to focus on the H-E systems (Reynolds et al 2007(Reynolds et al , 2011. In Inner Mongolia, most scientific research has focused on natural science topics (e.g., soil, vegetation, and their interactions), and the need to balance economic, social, and environmental aspects have been also pointed out (König et al 2014).…”

Woody plant encroachment into grasslands leads to accelerated erosion of previously stable organic carbon from dryland soils

“…Due to the combined pressures of climate change and demography, both the area and human population of drylands will continue to increase [Reynolds et al, 2007;Seager et al, 2007]. Over half of the current dryland population relies directly on the land, is classified as socioeconomically marginalized, and thus, is particularly vulnerable to environmental change [Zafar et al, 2005].…”

Impact of pastoral land use on central Namibian savanna vegetation - Methods for indictor development and perspectives for their application

“…Mit Implementierung des BIOTA Africa Monitoring-Projekts (Scholes & Biggs 2005;Butchart et al 2010;Reynolds et al 2011). Indikatoren des Zustands von Biodiversität können einzelne Arten, Populationen, deren Anzahl oder die Anzahl an funktionellen Typen sein.…”