Science and Public Service during a Pandemic: Reflections from the Scientists of the Philippine Government's Covid-19 Surveillance Platform

Estuar, Maria Regina Justina E.; Uyheng, Joshua; Leon, Marlene M. De; Benito, Daniel Joseph; Lara-Tuprio, Elvira de; Estadilla, Carlo Delfin S.; Teng, Timothy Robin

doi:10.1353/phs.2020.0031

Cited by 2 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…On the policy side, we also affirm the importance of other science-policy interfaces that differ from those detailed by the FASSSTER case in the Philippines ( Estuar et al, 2020 ). For instance, the organizational structure and composition of other pandemic advisory bodies like SAGE in the United Kingdom may feature their own set of advantages and disadvantages relative to the local context ( Freedman, 2020 , Vallejo and Ong, 2020 ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 75%

“…A vast literature tackles the general design and calibration of mathematical models for understanding the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in general, or to answer specific policy questions in an abstract setting of inquiry ( Eikenberry et al, 2020 , Gnanvi et al, 2021 , Lin et al, 2020b , Lin et al, 2020a , Rahimi et al, 2021 , Syeda et al, 2021 , Wynants et al, 2020 ). In this paper, we detail both the mathematical framework for understanding COVID-19 in the Philippines, as well as how it was used to answer multiple, concrete, and shifting policy questions over time ( Estuar et al, 2020 , Vallejo and Ong, 2020 ). Moreover, we demonstrate the reciprocal relationship between substantive policy concerns with the design, deployment, and dynamic evolution of mathematical modelling techniques.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Coinciding with the World Health Organization’s (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a pandemic, the Philippine Department of Health confirmed its first local case of COVID-19 in the first week of March 2020. At this time, FASSSTER was reconfigured to aid in the pandemic intelligence response in the Philippines ( Estuar et al, 2020 ). With the development and deployment of the mathematical model of FASSSTER for the COVID-19 transmission in the Philippines, hereafter referred to as the FASSSTER model , public health policies in the country have been formulated with the guidance of data-driven inputs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Policy-driven mathematical modeling for COVID-19 pandemic response in the Philippines

et al. 2022

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 75%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Policy-driven mathematical modeling for COVID-19 pandemic response in the Philippines

et al. 2022

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…The present work specifically investigates the dynamics of COVID-19 in the Philippines and aims to identify optimal strategies for efficiently controlling infections. We draw on existing modelling efforts by the national pandemic surveillance system [ 36 ] to derive realistic parameters which match existing epidemic trends and available intervention strategies in the country [ 37 ]. By deploying models informed by local parameters of the disease, we therefore aim to provide both theoretically optimal and contextually practical recommendations for policymakers [ 38 ].…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of vaccine supplies and delays on optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic: mapping interventions for the Philippines

et al. 2021

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background Around the world, controlling the COVID-19 pandemic requires national coordination of multiple intervention strategies. As vaccinations are globally introduced into the repertoire of available interventions, it is important to consider how changes in the local supply of vaccines, including delays in administration, may be addressed through existing policy levers. This study aims to identify the optimal level of interventions for COVID-19 from 2021 to 2022 in the Philippines, which as a developing country is particularly vulnerable to shifting assumptions around vaccine availability. Furthermore, we explore optimal strategies in scenarios featuring delays in vaccine administration, expansions of vaccine supply, and limited combinations of interventions. Methods Embedding our work within the local policy landscape, we apply optimal control theory to the compartmental model of COVID-19 used by the Philippine government’s pandemic surveillance platform and introduce four controls: (a) precautionary measures like community quarantines, (b) detection of asymptomatic cases, (c) detection of symptomatic cases, and (d) vaccinations. The model is fitted to local data using an L-BFGS minimization procedure. Optimality conditions are identified using Pontryagin’s minimum principle and numerically solved using the forward–backward sweep method. Results Simulation results indicate that early and effective implementation of both precautionary measures and symptomatic case detection is vital for averting the most infections at an efficient cost, resulting in $$>99\%$$ > 99 % reduction of infections compared to the no-control scenario. Expanding vaccine administration capacity to 440,000 full immunizations daily will reduce the overall cost of optimal strategy by $$25\%$$ 25 % , while allowing for a faster relaxation of more resource-intensive interventions. Furthermore, delays in vaccine administration require compensatory increases in the remaining policy levers to maintain a minimal number of infections. For example, delaying the vaccines by 180 days (6 months) will result in an $$18\%$$ 18 % increase in the cost of the optimal strategy. Conclusion We conclude with practical insights regarding policy priorities particularly attuned to the Philippine context, but also applicable more broadly in similar resource-constrained settings. We emphasize three key takeaways of (a) sustaining efficient case detection, isolation, and treatment strategies; (b) expanding not only vaccine supply but also the capacity to administer them, and; (c) timeliness and consistency in adopting policy measures. Graphic Abstract

show abstract

Science and Public Service during a Pandemic: Reflections from the Scientists of the Philippine Government's Covid-19 Surveillance Platform

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

Policy-driven mathematical modeling for COVID-19 pandemic response in the Philippines

Policy-driven mathematical modeling for COVID-19 pandemic response in the Philippines

Impact of vaccine supplies and delays on optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic: mapping interventions for the Philippines

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About