Schooling effects on degree performance: A comparison of the predictive validity of aptitude testing and secondary school grades at Oxford University

Abstract

This article examines the cause of school type effects upon gaining a first class degree at Oxford University, whereby for a given level of secondary school performance, private school students perform less well at degree level. We compare the predictive power of an aptitude test and secondary school grades (GCSEs) for final examination performance, using data from the Oxford Admissions Study. Both metrics are predictive of final degree performance but the school effects are only statistically robust for arts students. Private school students perform less well in final examinations relative to their GCSE results when compared with state school students, but they do not under perform relative to their aptitude test scores or in gross terms. It is therefore argued that teaching effects, associated with private school students, distort secondary school grades as an indicator of academic potential in higher education when compared to state school students.

Equidad en tiempos de tasas universitarias elevadas: un estudio de caso sobre las universidades inglesas

“…The survey was the largest of its kind, and tracked outcomes for 130,000 students -the entire young A-level entrant population of 2007-08. Its findings were similar to those of previous studies (Hoare & Johnston, 2011;Ogg, Zimdars, & Heath, 2009;Smith & Naylor, 2005).…”

Predicting students' academic performance based on school and socio-demographic characteristics

“…Although there is an overlap between school type and school performance, where fee-paying schools are predominantly higher performing, the associations between school type and school performance with academic performance at university has been found to differ between studies (HEFCE 2003(HEFCE , 2005(HEFCE , 2014Smith and Naylor 2001). Indeed, the average performance of students at a school does not appear to have a consistent effect on academic attainment in HE (Ogg, Zimdars, and Heath 2009). There is disagreement regarding the direction of the effect of school performance on academic attainment (HEFCE 2003;Smith and Naylor 2001) including whether or not school performance has a significant effect at all (HEFCE 2014;Hoare and Johnson 2010).…”

“…Differences in HE participation are largely attributed to the poorer school-level academic qualifications obtained by a large proportion of students within low socio-economic status (SES) classifications and are associated with educational disadvantage (Chowdry et al 2013;Steele, Vignoles, and Jenkins 2007;Sutton Trust 2005). Further, research comparing the academic performance of students from different school types and backgrounds in HE suggests that school qualifications do not necessarily represent 'true academic potential' (Hoare and Johnston 2010;Ogg, Zimdars, and Heath 2009;Peers and Johnston 1994;Zimdars 2007). In particular, the finding that students from independent schools tend to enter university with higher grades than students from (nonfee paying) state schools but perform less well once at university when entry grades are held constant is regarded as rationale for utilising contextual data alongside school grades in the university admissions process (HEFCE 2003(HEFCE , 2014Hoare and Johnston 2010;Smith 2005, Sutton Trust 2010a).…”

Is contextualised admission the answer to the access challenge?

“…It can thus be crucial for someone in this position to demonstrate the instrumentally derived value or economic and social mobility reasoning for using contextual data. There is also research empirically supporting the argument that those admitted to Russell Group institutions from schools where the average attainment was below the national average attain more highly at university than those admitted with the same grades from schools where all students attain highly (HEFCE 2003;Ogg, Zimdars, and Heath 2009;Hoare and Johnston 2011;Taylor et al 2013;Lasselle, McDougall-Bagnall, and Smith 2014;but see Parks 2011;Partington, Carroll, and Chetwynd 2011;Chetwynd 2011). These findings are then used as an argument for considering those with good, but not excellent grades from less good schools to have equipotential for high achievement at university compared with high attaining students from schools that perform higher than the national average.…”