Scheduling The Construction of Low-Income Community Houses in Palu City Using the Probabilistic Duration Method

Abstract

Residential construction projects can have many risks and uncertainties that can affect their completion time. To ensure a residential construction project is completed on time, accurate duration estimates are required for each activity. The deterministic duration Critical Path Method (CPM) is extensively used in construction project scheduling. However, this method may not always yield a realistic schedule as it uses only one duration estimation for each activity. As an alternative, this study uses the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) which utilizes three duration estimates, and the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) which simulates the duration 5000 times. A house construction project with 24 activities was analyzed using CPM which yielded 63 days completion time. The project was then analyzed using PERT and MCS. PERT and MCS calculations found that to complete the project with a 95% level of confidence the project needed 70 and 79 days, respectively. The findings of this study indicate that PERT and MCS can assist project managers in creating a more realistic project schedule by considering the risks and uncertainties inherent in a construction project.