Scenarios on future land changes in the West African Sahel

Abstract

In an attempt to anticipate possible futures of drylands of West Africa in the face of rapid socio-economic and environmental changes, we developed four scenarios based on recent survey data, the literature and our knowledge of the region. The four scenarios are inspired by those developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: (1) 'downward spiral' characterized by rapid climate change, expansion of agriculture and chaotic urban growth; (2) 'integrated economy' with integrated land management, food production for local markets and rural-urban exchanges; (3) 'open doors' characterized by large-scale out-migrations, land grabbing by foreign companies and development aid and (4) 'climate change mitigation' with an increase in biofuel crops, land management for carbon capture and development of off-farm activities. We conclude that the Sahel region is most likely moving away from being a highly climate-dependent region based on agriculture towards a more open and diversified economy. West African countries have to find a balance between the new opportunities and risks created by economic globalization.

Increasing the Effectiveness of the “Great Green Wall” as an Adaptation to the Effects of Climate Change and Desertification in the Sahel

“…Human factors are superimposed on this high climatic variability, with high levels of poverty, population growth and conflict across many regions of the Sahel, along with a high dependence of rain-fed agriculture. Poor land management techniques, over grazing, lack of water conservation strategies and human-initiated bushfires have all been identified as interacting with biophysical factors to create desertification [37], exacerbated by the disruption of traditional land management practices originating in the colonial era [38][39][40][41][42].…”

A review of recent ecological changes in the Sahel, with particular reference to land‐use change, plants, birds and mammals

“…However, the million dollar question remains whether this biological impoverishment will lead to a new and much impoverished but somewhat stable state as in the temperate agricultural deserts of Western Europe and North America, or whether a catastrophic breakdown will happen once the system is pushed beyond certain thresholds. While no ecologist (or economist) has a crystal ball (Stéphenne & Lambin, ; Abiodun et al ., ; Rasmussen et al ., ; Mitchell, ; Lambin et al ., ), the Sahel's case may be particularly worrying for the following reasons: One of the world's highest human growth rates causes this transformation to be particularly rapid (Brink & Eva, ). The almost complete lack of remedial actions for biodiversity (effective protective areas, hunting restrictions, environmental education and monitoring, etc.) (Monfort et al ., ; Thiollay, ; USAID, ; Reenberg et al ., ; IUCN, ) ensure that the biological impoverishment and ecological degradation will continue unabated for the foreseeable future. The Sahel is a semi‐arid ecosystem whose ecological resilience may be especially close to dangerous thresholds because semi‐arid ecoregions are inherently more unstable than most other ecoregions (van de Koppel, Rietkerk & Weissing, ; Foley et al ., ; Rietkerk et al ., ; D'Odorico et al ., ), and its ecological resilience continues to be eroded rapidly [even if its agricultural resilience is increased, see Results (Plants and soil)]. The Sahel drought brought widespread human and ecological disaster, and some authors believe another drought would cause similar havoc again.…”

Crops and livestock under the sun: Obstacles to rural livelihood adaptations to hotter 21st century temperatures in eastern Senegal

“…Increasing temperatures threaten tropical cereal staples-maize and rice, in particular -and scientists are calling for transformational changes in smallholder African farming systems (Ramirez-Villegas & Thornton, 2015). It is forecast that certain geographic areas, such as dryland West Africa, will require more fundamental changes as the production of key crops becomes unviable and many inhabitants may need to abandon farming altogether and take up livestock husbandry (Jones & Thornton, 2009) or other nonfarm activities (Lambin, D'haen, Mertz, Østergaard Nielsen, & Rasmussen, 2014).…”