Scenarios of land cover in Karst area of Southwestern China

Abstract

The method of surface modeling of land cover scenarios (SMLCS) has been improved to simulate the scenarios of land cover in the karst areas of southwestern China. On the basis of the observation monthly climatic data collected from 782 weather stations of China during the period from 1981 to 2010, the climatic scenarios data of RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios released by CMIP5, and the land cover current data of China in 2010, the land cover scenarios of southwestern China were respectively simulated. The average total accuracy and Kappa index of SMLCS are 90.25 and 87.96 %, respectively. The results show that there would be a very apparent similar variety on the spatial distribution pattern of land cover in the karst areas of southwestern China under all the three scenarios during the period from 2010 to 2100, but there would have the different change rate. In general, the change rate of land cover type under RCP85 scenario would be the fastest, then under RCP45 scenario, and under RCP26 would be the slowest. From 2010 to 2100, deciduous coniferous forest, deciduous broadleaf forest, grassland, cropland, nival area, and desert and bare rock would have a gradual decrease trend, while evergreen coniferous forest, evergreen broadleaf forests, mixed forest, scrublands, wetlands, construction built-up land, and water bodies body would gradually increase in karst areas of southwestern China, in which wetland would have the fastest increase rate (5.28 % per decade on average), and desert and bare rock would decrease with the fastest rate (2.34 % per decade on average).Keywords Surface modeling of land cover scenarios (SMLCS) Á Land cover Á Scenarios Á Karst areas of Southwestern China

Shifts of the Mean Centers of Potential Vegetation Ecosystems under Future Climate Change in Eurasia

“…The HASM method [11,41,42] was utilized to obtain high-resolution and high-accuracy climate data by interpolating the station observational climate data and downscaling the climate scenario data. The HLZ ecosystem model [9], as a bioclimatic classification scheme [48], has been widely used to simulate the distributions of terrestrial ecosystems [35,36,49], predict land cover change [47], and support land use planning [20][21][22][23][24][25]. In this paper, the HLZ ecosystem model was improved to simulate the distribution of the potential vegetation type.…”

“…The distributions of potential vegetation are significantly controlled by changes in climate [59,60], especially changes in temperature [61]. In the three climate change scenarios, RCP8.5 is the scenario with the highest predicted change, RCP4.5 is the intermediate scenario, and RCP2.6 is the scenario with the lowest predicted change [23,39,62]. The results of the simulated shift trends of the mean centers of potential vegetation types were all similar in that the intensity of climate change directly affects the shift distances of the mean centers of the potential vegetation ecosystems.…”

“…The HLZ ecosystem model is a classification system for different HLZ ecosystem types in terms of the three bioclimatic factors: Mean annual biotemperature (MAB), average total annual precipitation (TAP) and potential evapotranspiration ratio (PER) [9,11,23,37]. The HLZ ecosystem model was improved to simulate the potential vegetation ecosystems throughout Eurasia and can be expressed as…”

“…(BOX) [17], Dynamic Global Phytogeography Model (DOLY) [8], Mapped Atmosphere-Plant Soil System (MAPSS) model [18] and Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS) [19]. In particular, the HLZ ecosystem model has been widely used and is considered an effective method for simulating the potential distributions of vegetation ecosystems [20][21][22][23][24] because the model parameters only involve the three key climatic factors: Mean annual biotemperature (MAB), average total annual precipitation (TAP) and potential evapotranspiration ratio (PER) [25][26][27].…”

Optimization of the National Land Space Based on the Coordination of Urban-Agricultural-Ecological Functions in the Karst Areas of Southwest China

“…In recent years, a large number of ecological restoration projects have been implemented in the karst areas of Southwest China [7][8][9]. The regional status of rocky desertification and the ecological environment has improved but the quality of the ecological environment is still under tremendous pressure [10][11][12][13]; in addition, the ecological vulnerability is still high [14][15][16]. The land use patterns have a strong impact on the rocky desertification status.…”