Scenarios for sustainable futures beyond GDP growth 2050

Svenfelt, Åsa; Alfredsson, Eva; Bradley, Karin; Fauré, Eléonore; Finnveden, Göran; Fuehrer, Paul; Gunnarsson-Östling, Ulrika; Isaksson, Karolina; Malmaeus, Mikael; Malmqvist, Tove; Skånberg, Kristian; Stigson, Peter; Aretun, Åsa; Buhr, Katarina; Hagbert, Pernilla; Öhlund, Erika

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2019.05.001

Cited by 53 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…We argue that a solution to this dilemma is multi-target backcasting scenarios. Such scenarios provide a way to avoid goal conflicts, by addressing several goals simultaneously (Svenfelt et al 2019). However, postponing mitigation action simply to avoid potential conflicts with other policy goals is a short-term solution that is unlikely to render significant benefits in the long run.…”

Section: Methodsological Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The development of multi-target backcasting scenarios can be methodologically challenging because how does one manage several targets simultaneously? One such multi-target scenario study has been carried out by Svenfelt et al (2019) in Sweden, in which four sustainability targets were used as a basis to develop scenarios for sustainable futures beyond GDP-growth.…”

Section: Methodsological Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Envisioning carbon-free land use futures for Sweden: a scenario study on conflicts and synergies between environmental policy goals

et al. 2020

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In climate change mitigation, backcasting scenarios are often used for exploring options for achieving a single environmental goal, albeit at the expense of other goals. This paper assesses potential conflicts and synergies between multiple environmental policy goals based on four future scenarios on Swedish rural land use, assuming zero GHG emissions in 2060. The assessment shows that goal conflicts are apparent, and policy makers need to make trade-offs between goals. The choice of strategy for dealing with these trade-offs yields conflicts or synergies. The assessment shows that a transition to zero GHG emissions provides opportunities for Sweden to shift to carbon free land-use planning. Overall, there are alternative ways with different underlying assumptions to achieve zero GHG emissions, which will feed discussions on new opportunities to overcome multi-scale and multi-sectoral goal conflicts. Multi-target backcasting scenarios are considered more suited to account for the multi-dimensional aspects of goal conflicts. This requires a comprehensive multi-target backcasting approach, which combines the strengths of multicriteria analysis, nexus approaches and backcasting, for supporting a transition to zero GHG emissions.

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Section: Methodsological Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsological Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Envisioning carbon-free land use futures for Sweden: a scenario study on conflicts and synergies between environmental policy goals

et al. 2020

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“…Most theoretical papers with no or little focus on any particular empirical setting tended to focus on the concept of the sharing economy per se. Such research discussed other things such as “the commons” [ 37 ], the concept of “sharing” [ 38 – 40 ], the conceptualisation of sharing-economy roles [ 41 ], sharing-economy futures [ 42 – 45 ], the sustainability of the sharing economy [ 46 , 47 ], cultural barriers and enablers [ 48 , 49 ], and caring platforms [ 50 , 51 ].…”

Section: The Sharing Economy In Swedish Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is the Meaning of the “Sharing Economy” Shared Among Us? Comparing the Perspectives of Japanese and Swedish Researchers

Majima

Fors

Inutsuka

et al. 2021

Rev Socionetwork Strat

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In this paper, we aim to investigate how researchers in Japan and Sweden perceive and approach the term “sharing economy” in research publications. Systematic literature reviews were used to explore academic discussions in both countries. The main finding of this research is that although researchers in both contexts use similar definitions and concepts, the meanings and connotations of the sharing economy differ among the two contexts. In summary, Japanese researchers tend to focus first and foremost on the economic effects of the sharing economy, as it serves the purpose of economic revitalisation. In contrast, Swedish researchers focus on its environmental effects. The differences reflect country-specific socio-cultural, technological, and economic contexts. Finally, we suggest future directions for research and policy development.

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“…To illustrate and explore these issues in a focused and scientifically informed way, we will here build on perspectives advanced in the recent research project "Beyond GDP-growth -Scenarios for sustainable building and planning". In this project several scenarios for Sweden in 2050 were developed (Svenfelt et al, 2019). These scenarios have been designed to explore potentials and obstacles connected with these future states in which four sustainability targets (climate, land use, participation, and resource security) could be attained in a democratic high-income country like Sweden.…”

Section: Ubi In Two Post-growth Scenarios: Local Self-sufficiency Vermentioning

confidence: 99%

Basic Income and Social Sustainability in Post-Growth Economies

Malmaeus

Alfredsson

Birnbaum

2020

Basic Income Studies

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A central task in efforts to identify pathways to ecologically and socially sustainable economies is to reduce inequality and poverty while reducing material consumption, which has recently inspired future post-growth scenarios. We build a model to explore the potential of a universal basic income (UBI) to serve these objectives. Starting from the observation that post-growth trajectories can take very different forms we analyze UBI in two scenarios advanced in the literature. Comparing UBI in a “local self-sufficiency” economy to a UBI in an “automation” economy, we show that although both scenarios satisfy central sustainability criteria, the impact of a UBI would differ greatly between these contexts. Our analysis shows that a UBI is less compatible with a labor-intensive local self-sufficiency economy than a capital-intensive, high tech economy. We conclude that the feasibility and attractiveness of a UBI in a post-growth scenario depends greatly on the specific characteristics of the economy.

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Scenarios for sustainable futures beyond GDP growth 2050

Cited by 53 publications

References 45 publications

Envisioning carbon-free land use futures for Sweden: a scenario study on conflicts and synergies between environmental policy goals

Envisioning carbon-free land use futures for Sweden: a scenario study on conflicts and synergies between environmental policy goals

Is the Meaning of the “Sharing Economy” Shared Among Us? Comparing the Perspectives of Japanese and Swedish Researchers

Basic Income and Social Sustainability in Post-Growth Economies

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