Scenarios for Knowledge Integration: Exploring Ecotourism Futures in Milne Bay, Papua New Guinea

Abstract

Scenario planning, a method for structured thinking about the future, offers an important tool for integrating scientific and stakeholder knowledge at different scales to explore alternative natural resource management and policy options. However, actual examples of such integration are rare. A scenario planning exercise was conducted in Milne Bay Province, Papua New Guinea, to integrate knowledge among scientists, ecotourism experts, and ecotourism stakeholders to explore possible futures for Milne Bay's nascent ecotourism industry. Four scenarios focused on climate change and technology, highlighting the risks and opportunities associated with rapid information exchange, and options to develop alternative ecotourism activities despite climate change impacts on natural assets. Although ecosystem-based management strategies were not investigated in detail by participants, all scenarios recognized and identified important cross-scale partnerships required to achieve sustainable management of natural resources and to promote ecotourism. An evaluation of changes in perceptions at the beginning and end of the scenario exercise suggests that participants became more aware of social and ecosystem processes occurring at broad spatial and temporal scales.

Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research: insights and experiences from 23 case studies

“…Involving stakeholders in the research process through place-based PSP provides voice to multiple perspectives on socialecological futures (Ravera et al 2011a, Reed et al 2013a, Mistry et al 2014, which can potentially reduce power asymmetries and provide more equitable decision making. By including stakeholder responses in scenarios and across scenarios, PSP can also potentially increase the legitimacy and acceptance of policy options across stakeholders involved in a process (e.g., Peterson et al 2003b, Bohensky et al 2011a,b, Ravera et al 2011a. Further, by including knowledge and information from a diversity of sources the quality of scenarios and identified policy options can be increased (e.g., Hill et al 2010, Palomo et al 2011, Ravera et al 2011a, Vilardy Quiroga et al 2011, Martin-Ortega et al 2014, and innovative strategies and opportunities for collaboration among multiple stakeholders can be identified (Butler et al 2015).…”

Ecosystem-Based Adaptation to Climate Change in Caribbean Small Island Developing States: Integrating Local and External Knowledge

“… Scenarios do not integrate knowledge explicitly, but rather implicitly through building stories based on different information sources [75].…”

“… Scenarios risk being a 'knowledge dump', whereby issues of accuracy and precision, weighting, standardization and resolution of discrepancies do not often receive attention [75].…”

Using qualitative scenarios to understand regional environmental change in the Canadian North

“…Scenario planning, initially a tool developed for the military, has been adapted for corporate management and more recently for assessing and planning for multiple aspects of environmental change (Bohensky et al 2011(Bohensky et al , 2006Gidley et al 2009;Kok et al 2007;Miller and Waller 2003;Odada et al 2009;Peterson et al 2003;Peterson 2007;Sheppard et al 2011). In these contexts, scenarios are not meant to be probabilistic forecasts of future conditions, but are rather images of possible alternate futures based on assumptions about key relationships and drivers of change (Chaudhury et al 2013;Nakićenović 2000;Peterson et al 2003b).…”