We describe a likelihood analysis using MasterCode of variants of the MSSM in which the soft supersymmetry-breaking parameters are assumed to have universal values at some scale M in below the supersymmetric grand unification scale M GUT , as can occur in mirage mediation and other models. In addition to M in , such 'sub-GUT' models have the 4 parameters of the CMSSM, namely a common gaugino mass m 1/2 , a common soft supersymmetrybreaking scalar mass m 0 , a common trilinear mixing parameter A and the ratio of MSSM Higgs vevs tan β, assuming that the Higgs mixing parameter μ > 0. We take into account constraints on strongly-and electroweakly-interacting sparticles from ∼ 36/fb of LHC data at 13 TeV and the LUX and 2017 PICO, XENON1T and PandaX-II searches for dark matter scattering, in addition to the previous LHC and dark matter constraints as well as full sets of flavour and electroweak constraints. We find a preference for M in ∼ 10 5 to 10 9 GeV, with M in ∼ M GUT disfavoured by χ 2 ∼ 3 due to the BR(B s,d → μ + μ − ) constraint. The lower limits on strongly-interacting sparticles are largely determined by LHC searches, and similar to those in the CMSSM. We find a preference for the LSP to be a Bino or Higgsino with mχ0 1 ∼ 1 TeV, with annihilation via heavy Higgs bosons a e-mail: j.costa15@imperial.ac.uk H/A and stop coannihilation, or chargino coannihilation, bringing the cold dark matter density into the cosmological range. We find that spin-independent dark matter scattering is likely to be within reach of the planned LUX-Zeplin and XENONnT experiments. We probe the impact of the (g − 2) μ constraint, finding similar results whether or not it is included.