Scenario Simulation for the Urban Carrying Capacity Based on System Dynamics Model in Shanghai, China

Abstract

Shanghai, as an international metropolis, has an ever-growing population and ongoing economic development, so the pressure on the natural resources and the environment is continually increased. How to ease the tension among economy, resources and the environment? The sustainable green development of Shanghai has been the focus of the public and the government. Urban carrying capacity involves complex interactions among population, the economy and the environment. Understanding the balance between these elements is an important scientific issue for sustainable green development in Shanghai. For this purpose, the balance between urban development and ecological resources was emphasized, and population carrying capacity, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), green ecological index and added value of secondary industry were investigated to measure urban carrying capacity. The dynamic changes of the carrying population, GDP, green ecological index and the added value of the secondary industry in Shanghai during 2018–2035 were simulated using a system dynamics model including three subsystems and 66 variables from a macroscopic perspective. Five development scenarios were employed during the simulation, namely a status-quo scenario, an economic-centric scenario, a high-tech-centric scenario, an environment-centric scenario and a coordinated equilibrium scenario. The simulation results indicated that the potential of carrying population will decline by 2035, and the economic and ecological indicators will also be at a low level under the status-quo scenario, which is an inferior option, while the under coordinated equilibrium scenario, the ecological environment, population growth and economic development will all perform excellently, which is the best option. Therefore, the urban carrying capacity of population, economy and resources in Shanghai may be improved by increasing investment in scientific research, increasing the expenditure on environmental protection and improving the recycling efficiency of waste solid and water. The results provide insights into the urban carrying capacity of Shanghai city.

Sustainability Assessment of Steel Industry in the Belt and Road Area Based on DPSIR Model

“…Researchers such as Sun, J. (2022) [23], Yu, W. (2022) [24], and Luo, H. (2022) [25] examine the relationship between industrial sustainable development and overall sustainability. Their aim is to achieve a harmonious and coordinated development of society, economy, and environment throughout the process of industrial growth.…”

A Study on Resource Carrying Capacity and Early Warning of Urban Agglomerations of the Yellow River Basin Based on Sustainable Development Goals, China

“…The origin of the carrying capacity concept comes from biology and ecology [4], and the resource carrying capacity has been widely evaluated, from studies that assess single elements to much more comprehensive evaluations [5], which primarily focus on the study of the land carrying capacity [6], water carrying capacity [7,8], ecological carrying capacity [9], and other elements with potent relevance. The specific measures of resource carrying capacity include the system dynamics model [10,11], multiobjective function [12], neural network [13], ecological footprint method [14], principal component analysis [15], hierarchical analysis [16], and the TOPSIS method [17], which have all undergone development from an original focus on single resource constraints to comprehensive assessments of the human occupation of resources. The increasing depth of research has meant that resource carrying capacity has gradually changed from a classification to a synthesis, from qualitative to quantitative assessments, and from evaluating the current carrying capacity to developing monitoring and early warning strategies [3].…”

Thermal Comfort Analysis Using System Dynamics Modeling—A Sustainable Scenario Proposition for Low-Income Housing in Brazil

“…For the above-mentioned reasons, this paper will take a single room from Baltimore Residential to run a system dynamics (SD) model based on the literature review's sugges-tions on sustainable solutions for thermal comfort improvement [27,28]. The SD model should shed light on the underlying cause-and-effect relationships that could explain why a particular behavior occurred in the first place, simulating the causality between factors through positive and negative feedback [27].…”

“…For the above-mentioned reasons, this paper will take a single room from Baltimore Residential to run a system dynamics (SD) model based on the literature review's sugges-tions on sustainable solutions for thermal comfort improvement [27,28]. The SD model should shed light on the underlying cause-and-effect relationships that could explain why a particular behavior occurred in the first place, simulating the causality between factors through positive and negative feedback [27]. By applying this tool, it is possible to deal with high-order non-linear problems and other complex systems; therefore, it has been used by researchers to investigate, for example, green buildings [29] and construction management [28] promotion strategies.…”