Scenario planning as strategic activity: A practice‐orientated approach

Abstract

Although scenario planning is described often as a strategy tool

On inquiry in futures and foresight science

“…In examining the literature, two patterns of scholarly inquiry were identified as concerning: the conflict of interest inherent in the practice of self-observation among facilitators and the inadequacy of retrospective scientific accounts. This is thought to be especially relevant as the broader management literature (Jarzabkowski, 2004), including F&FS (Bowman & MacKay, 2020), places greater emphasis on enactment in practice, and, therefore, in parallel, greater scrutiny of the methods used to evaluate, examine, and explore those practicesought to follow suit (Whittington, 1996(Whittington, , 2006).…”

“…As we collectively reflect on the conduct of science, can we continue being instrumentally realist in the execution of our empirical methods in an effort to assess, analyze, and examine our practical methods (e.g., scenario planning in practice)? The answer is no, or, at minimum, no longer, and especially not after the “practice turn” (Bowman & MacKay, 2020). In the concluding remarks, we recommend more analytical energy be devoted to reflecting on the science of futures and foresight.…”

Revisiting Scenario Planning and Business Wargaming From an Open Strategy Perspective

“…This discussion will, on the one hand, reflect the current literature on both approaches and, on the other hand, reflect practitioners' experience in applying SP and BW. For instance, it has been argued that practitioner accounts are critical to SP research (Bowman and MacKay 2020), and this also applies to BW. Augier et al (2018) claim that wargaming is among the oldest tools for aiding strategy planning and formulation, having been in use for over 200 years, while SP has existed for over fifty years.…”

“…This discussion will, on the one hand, reflect the current literature on both approaches and, on the other hand, reflect practitioners’ experience in applying SP and BW. For instance, it has been argued that practitioner accounts are critical to SP research (Bowman and MacKay 2020), and this also applies to BW.…”

“…Furthermore, Bowman and MacKay (2020) emphasize the relevance of a facilitator in an SP workshop to manage the people and the process. The authors further argue that it takes rare skill to take a group of people from a position of perceived uncertainty concerning the future of their industry to a point where they might feel confident to take on strategic challenges.…”