Scenario Planning Approach to Pre-Event Planning for Post-Disaster Recovery: The Case of the Future Mega-Tsunami Striking Kushimoto, Japan

Abstract

Previous studies have argued the significance of pre-event planning for post-disaster recovery. We examined how scenario planning approach is effective for pre-disaster planning. We applied scenario planning approach to develop strategies for multiple possible futures of the case study city, expected to hit by a massive tsunami following the Nankai Trough earthquake. Our analysis reveals the adaptive and transformative strategies for multiple scenarios. Uncertainty surrounding dynamic recovery processes need to enforce transformative strategies to reframe the Japanese planning paradigm in post-disaster recovery.

From isolation to revival: trade recovery amid global health crises

“…Historically, the case method has been leveraged in public health and international policy research [ 6 , 12 , 37 ], offering insights into policy development and implementation. Its adoption in this study, rather than more quantitative methods, allows for a deep, contextual analysis of policy effectiveness and adaptability in diverse scenarios, thereby enhancing our understanding of trade recovery strategies.…”

“…(3) Insights obtained offer references for shaping national trade recovery policies in response to GHEs. Given the post-disaster recovery’s uncertainty, governments must enforce transformative measures [ 37 ], which are both adaptive and robust, to ensure economic stability and resilience.…”

Resilience of Critical Infrastructure Systems: A Systematic Literature Review of Measurement Frameworks

“…The functionality failure of critical infrastructure can vary according to the type and intensity of the hazards. Meanwhile, critical infrastructures can perform better/worse than the expected performance [28,48]. A performance-based infrastructure resilience curve for critical infrastructure is shown in Figure 1 for different phases of a disaster [ex-ante, during, and ex-post].…”

“…Moreover, the applications of safety protocols must be restudied as lessons learned to ensure the adequate performance of designed safety systems. Subsequently, the long-term CIR for earthquakes in terms of the concept of restoration [46] and regeneration [48] has to be assessed to improve performance and services. Another aspect of the ex-post phase is to plan an earthquake debris management strategy to improve long-term performance [115].…”

“…During the hazard phase, they need to focus on emergency management plans (e.g., short-recovery, warning systems, and temporary shelters). Finally, during the post-disaster phase, they should focus on short-term and long-term recovery of critical infrastructure services [31,48,67,116,117]. Thus this proposed framework is adaptable for the user to select the most appropriate tool and a method for application based on the user requirements [118,119].…”