Scenario Modeling of Urbanization Development and Water Scarcity Based on System Dynamics: A Case Study of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration, China

Abstract

Due to the accelerated process of urbanization in China, urban agglomerations have become the core areas for human settlement and economic development. High population and economic density has brought great pressure on water supply. Water scarcity is increasingly becoming one of the most important issues for the sustainable and healthy development of China’s urban agglomerations. In this paper, a system dynamics model was constructed to simulate the current conditions and future scenarios of urbanization development and water scarcity in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration in 2000–2030, by examining the interaction and feedback between the six major subsystems: water supply, water demand, water pollution, population urbanization, economic urbanization, and land urbanization. It is found that the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and the improved Reclaimed Water Reuse System may greatly increase the water supply. However, the speed of population urbanization and economic growth, the spatial structure of urban agglomeration and the water consumption pattern may determine the water demand. Although all scenarios may risk water scarcity in the future at some point, we could detect a comprehensive and relatively rational scenario to balance water scarcity, regional equity, and efficiency. It might help to synthetically understand the coordinated development mode between urbanization and water resources in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration, and provide a useful analytical and decision support tool for scientists and policy-makers to achieve the sustainable urbanization development and water resource management.

Sustainable Production of Reclaimed Water by Constructed Wetlands for Combined Irrigation and Microalgae Cultivation Applications

“…The monthly need for water reserves can be estimated from Equation 6, where the subscript refers to the month and R is the reserve volume, G is the wastewater generated and treated, P is the precipitation, I is the irrigation consumption, A is the water feed to the microalgae PBRs, and W is the water extracted from the well, all in m 3 maximum storage corresponding to cistern capacity and full lake capacity; and (4) additional extra storage to allow no use of groundwater extraction. Table 6 presents the results of the simulation, including an estimate for algae biomass production considering a productivity half the maximum value obtained experimentally in Section 3.2 for the Scenedesmus species, allowing for the consequences of non-optimal conditions in the cold periods.…”

“…The increasing demands for water resources for multiple purposes such as agriculture, industry, public water supply, recreational uses, and other applications are leading to water scarcity and the deterioration of freshwater quality [1]. The intensification of severe weather conditions, such as droughts [2], and urban development has also put a significant strain on freshwater supplies [3].…”

Development of a Multi-Methodological Approach to Support the Management of Water Supply Systems

“…The results show that Shenzhen's water supply and demand will decrease steadily in the coming years, indicating a severe shortage of water resources and conflicts between water supply and demand in this region. Another study that simulated long-term scenarios was developed by Bao and He [10]. The author in that study develops a system dynamics model to simulate the current conditions and future development scenarios of urbanization and water scarcity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (PTH) urban agglomeration in 2000-2030, examining the interaction and feedback between the six main subsystems: water supply, water demand, water pollution, population urbanization, economic urbanization, and land urbanization.…”

“…In this context, the system dynamics (SD) approach is widely used in water resources planning and decision making [8][9][10] (see in detail in Section 2.2). However, the benefits provided by SD are directly related to their correct construction.…”

A Method of Constructing Marine Oil Spill Scenarios from Flat Text Based on Semantic Analysis

“…Therefore, scenario analysis is of interest because it addresses variable uncertainties. Scenario analyses of the characteristics of historical data have been successfully applied in many fields, including in the long-term forecasting of nonresidential gas consumption [7], the estimation of the potential for reduction in CO 2 emissions in China's iron and steel industry [8], the simulation of water scarcity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration [9], and the modeling of some economic services [10].…”