Scenario Modeling for Sustainable Development in Dynamic Environments

Abstract

Today, conditions are characterized by high dynamics of changes in the external environment, which has a significant impact on ensuring sustainable development. The main purpose of the article is to model the choice of a scenario to ensure the achievement of sustainable development in a dynamic environment. The object of the study is the activity of specific socio-economic systems in the framework of sustainable development. The method of analysis of hierarchies formed the basis of the methodology of the article. As a result of the study, the article proposes a scientific and practical approach to determining the nature of adaptation procedures, which, in contrast to the existing ones, based on the nature of changes in the external environment and the application of the hierarchy analysis method, involves the choice of a static or dynamic type of adaptation, which determines the content of adaptation procedures for ensuring sustainable development. The main results of the study are revealed in the approach proposed by the authors when choosing a scenario for ensuring sustainable development. Certain limitations influence the results in such a way that possible scenarios will not be effective for other regions. The prospects for further research will aim at expanded facilities through the selection of more sustainable development activities. That is, in the future, we will consider ensuring sustainable development not only of the country, but also of an entire set of countries, such as the EU, for example.