Scenario Building as a Process and Tool in Urban Governance

Khan, Shabana; Sara, Liliana Miranda; Sydenstricker-Neto, John; Sutherland, Catherine; Hordijk, Michaela

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-21272-2_10

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…This includes eliciting context-embedded sectorial knowledge from institutional actors and context-embedded community knowledge from farmers and local residents (van Ewijk and Baud 2009;Pfeffer et al 2013). The approach engages actors with heterogeneous backgrounds and interests to systematically discuss plausible futures of complex, uncertain, and dynamic systems (Reed et al 2013;Khan et al 2015). Participatory scenario-building processes have been critiqued because outcomes do not automatically translate to change (Cairns et al 2013).…”

Section: Participatory Spatial Scenario Buildingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While participatory scenario building has been applied in many fields, participatory backcasting is frequently used in place-based environmental applications (ibid.). Backcasting sets targets in the future, which are unachievable under current developments, and works backward to identify the requisite actions and events needed to realize the preferred future (Börjeson et al 2006;Khan et al 2015). Forecasting, on the other hand, predicts the likely future based on the currently prevailing conditions, without any interventions (Börjeson et al 2006).…”

Section: Participatory Spatial Scenario Buildingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Envisioning the Future of Mosaic Landscapes: Actor Perceptions in a Mixed Cocoa/Oil-Palm Area in Ghana

Asubonteng

Ros-Tonen

Baud

et al. 2020

Environmental Management

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The future and benefits of mosaic landscapes have been a source of scientific and societal concern due to increasing population growth, climate change, urbanization, and expanding agricultural commodities. There is a growing call for integrated landscape approaches in which landscape actors discuss trade-offs between different land uses with a view to reaching a negotiated decision on the allocation of land uses. Yet, the operationalization of such approaches is still in its infancy, and integrated methodologies to visualize actors’ landscape visions are still scarce. This study therefore presents a participatory spatial scenario-building methodology that uncovers local perceptions of landscape dynamics and needed actions in a mixed cocoa-oil-palm landscape in Ghana’s Eastern Region. The methodology visualizes landscape actors’ perceived plausible changes and desired future landscapes, and is designed to trigger discussions on actions needed to achieve these desired futures. Findings show that farmers and institutional actors are aware of their landscapes with future preferences coming close to actual landscape composition and spatial configuration, and that—contrary to common assumptions—only those in the oil-palm-dominated landscape who already experienced the drawbacks of increasing landscape homogenization desire a mosaic landscape. The paper concludes that the collective mapping process makes actors aware of challenges at landscape level and increases farmers’ negotiation power through active engagement in the process and visualization of their knowledge and visions. Application of the methodology requires dedicated funding, political will, and capacity to apply it as an ongoing process, as well as monitoring feedback loops.

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Section: Participatory Spatial Scenario Buildingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Participatory Spatial Scenario Buildingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Envisioning the Future of Mosaic Landscapes: Actor Perceptions in a Mixed Cocoa/Oil-Palm Area in Ghana

Asubonteng

Ros-Tonen

Baud

et al. 2020

Environmental Management

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A Futuristic Approach to Sustainable Tourism Development

Rezapouraghdam

Alipour

Akhshik

2020

Strategies for Promoting Sustainable Hospitality and Tourism Services

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In spite of the enormous efforts and implementation of the masterplans for the development of rural areas in Iran, the majority face economic, social, and ecological challenges that jeopardize their future, particularly where tourism has been prescribed as a panacea. Among those, Kandovan, known as the only inhabited rocky village in the world that attracts half a million visitors, annually entails excessive consideration and as a case embraces imperative contributions to the sustainability-future research domain. This study aims to contribute to an enhanced understanding of the nexus between “sustainable development” and the “future” in tourist destinations. Through the analysis of the secondary data, this study takes a scenario-planning approach and discusses the current social, environmental, and economic themes: the foundation of four potential future scenarios. The underpinned framework in the context of Kandovan offers noteworthy implications both in theory and practice of tourism by proposing an area-based planning model according to the emerged alternative scenario.

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Scenario Building as a Process and Tool in Urban Governance

Cited by 2 publications

References 17 publications

Envisioning the Future of Mosaic Landscapes: Actor Perceptions in a Mixed Cocoa/Oil-Palm Area in Ghana

Envisioning the Future of Mosaic Landscapes: Actor Perceptions in a Mixed Cocoa/Oil-Palm Area in Ghana

A Futuristic Approach to Sustainable Tourism Development

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