Scenario-Based Strategic Modeling of Road Transport Demand and Performance

Abstract

Road infrastructure plays an important role in the economic and social development of societies. Thus, it requires effective and timely responses to cope with and embrace uncertain future changes. This study proposes an integrated, scenario-based strategic model which estimates transport demand, network performance, emission, and energy consumption. The model accounts for future economic, behavioral, policy, and technological developments by including four future scenarios and traces the possible changes in transport infrastructure performance. It primarily aims at supporting infrastructure decisions by quantifying a set of network and environmental performance indicators along their spatial–temporal dimension. Moreover, the effects of transport demand and energy transition policies on road performance are considered within each scenario. This model is applied in a case study region covering the main industrial and urban regions of the Netherlands. The discussed results provide insights into the possible infrastructure investments within each scenario and elaborate on the possible effects of policies.

Uncovering the Challenges of Sustainable Development in North Aceh: A Policy Analysis of Special Transfer Funds

“…The allocation of specia autonomy funds could have significantly impacted the road condition in North Aceh [89] In the past three years, the condition of most district roads was reported to be unstable and damaged, as depicted in Figure 6. This situation has led to disruptions in economic activities, as evidenced by the findings of Asgarpour et al [90]. The low availability of food and the ability of communities to access it will lead to food insecurity.…”

Scenario-feature identification from online reviews based on BERT

“… Lu & Liao (2023) combined experience design and scenario-based design approaches to extend the interaction system of the home cleaning robot to enhance the experience value of the product. Asgarpour et al (2023) proposed an integrated scenario-based model that defines four possible future scenarios to assess possible changes in road infrastructure and provide recommendations for investment in infrastructure. Online reviews provide information about the experience of consumers on each dimension of product features, and contain information about the scenarios how consumers use products.…”