Scenario-based modelling for urban sustainability focusing on changes in cropland under rapid urbanization: A case study of Hangzhou from 1990 to 2035

Hou, Hao; Wang, Ruci; Murayama, Yuji

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.208

Cited by 63 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Keeping in mind that LULC composition strongly influences the future development potential in terms of sustainability and economy, it is essential to analyze the LULC composition for each zone to perceive the future trends of LULC. Urban-rural gradient analysis is a method to analyze the spatial distribution of different LULC classes by predefined distance ranges from the city center all the way to the nearby rural areas [1,39]. The method can help to understand the urbanization structure and discover further opportunities for potential development in the city.…”

Section: Urban-rural Gradient Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The CA-Markov model is a hybrid model combining Markov and cellular automata models. Because of its ability to allocate spatial information of landscape, it has been widely used in land cover modeling and landscape prediction [1,44]. It has already gained an excellent reputation and has a prospective future in several fields, for instance: computer science, mathematics, and geographical science [45,46].…”

Section: Cellular Automata-markov Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Following the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization, the quantity, structure, and degree of land use/cover (LULC) have been significantly changed over the past years, especially in developing countries [1,2]. Meanwhile, the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon has become severely causing excessive consumption of energy, an increase of air pollutants, and deterioration of the environment [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatiotemporal Analysis of Land Use/Cover Patterns and Their Relationship with Land Surface Temperature in Nanjing, China

et al. 2020

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Rapid urbanization is one of the most concerning issues in the 21st century because of its significant impacts on various fields, including agriculture, forestry, ecology, and climate. The urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon, highly related to the rapid urbanization, has attracted considerable attention from both academic scholars and governmental policymakers because of its direct influence on citizens’ daily life. Land surface temperature (LST) is a widely used indicator to assess the intensity of UHI significantly affected by the local land use/cover (LULC). In this study, we used the Landsat time-series data to derive the LULC composition and LST distribution maps of Nanjing in 2000, 2014, and 2018. A correlation analysis was carried out to check the relationship between LST and the density of each class of LULC. We found out that cropland and forest in Nanjing are helping to cool the city with different degrees of cooling effects depending on the location and LULC composition. Then, a Cellar Automata (CA)-Markov model was applied to predict the LULC conditions of Nanjing in 2030 and 2050. Based on the simulated LULC maps and the relationship between LST and LULC, we delineated high- and moderate-LST related risk areas in the city of Nanjing. Our findings are valuable for the local government to reorganize the future development zones in a way to control the urban climate environment and to keep a healthy social life within the city.

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Section: Urban-rural Gradient Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Cellular Automata-markov Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatiotemporal Analysis of Land Use/Cover Patterns and Their Relationship with Land Surface Temperature in Nanjing, China

et al. 2020

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“…Rapid changes in the landscape have resulted in the conversion of natural vegetation and agricultural land into built-up (impervious) land, such as buildings, parking lots, roads, and other constructions [1][2][3][4]. This has caused several environmental problems at local, regional, and global scales [5], such as decreases in agricultural land [6]; habitat destruction [5,7,8]; air, soil, and water contamination [9][10][11]; increases in vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue [12]; decreases in green space [13,14]; and increases in land surface temperature (LST) [15][16][17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impacts of Landscape Changes on Annual Mean Land Surface Temperature in the Tropical Mountain City of Sri Lanka: A Case Study of Nuwara Eliya (1996–2017)

et al. 2019

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Although urbanization has contributed to improving living conditions, it has had negative impacts on the natural environment in urbanized areas. Urbanization has changed the urban landscape and resulted in increasing land surface temperature (LST). Thus, studies related to LST in various urban environments have become popular. However, there are few LST studies focusing on mountain landscapes (i.e., hill stations). Therefore, this study investigated the changes in the landscape and their impacts on LST intensity (LSTI) in the tropical mountain city of Nuwara Eliya, Sri Lanka. The study utilized annual median temperatures extracted from Landsat data collected from 1996 to 2017 based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) interface. The fractions of built-up (BL), forested (FL) and agricultural (AL) land, were calculated using land use and cover maps based on urban–rural zone (URZ) analysis. The urban–rural margin was demarcated based on the fractions of BL (<10%), and LSTI that were measured using the mean LST difference in the urban–rural zone. Besides, the mixture of land-use types was calculated using the AL/FL and BL/FL fraction ratios, and grid-based density analysis. The results revealed that the BL in all URZs rapidly developed, while AL decreased during the period 1996 to 2017. There was a minimal change in the forest area of the Nuwara Eliya owing to the government’s forest preservation policies. The mean temperature of the study area increased by 2.1 °C from 1996 to 2017. The magnitude of mean LST between urban–rural zones also increased from 1.0 °C (1996) to 3.5 °C (2017). The results also showed that mean LST was positively correlated with the increase and decrease of the BL/FL and AL/FL fraction ratios, respectively. The grid-based analysis showed an increasing, positive relationship between mean LST and density of BL. This indicated that BL density had been a crucial element in increasing LST in the study area. The results of this study will be a useful indicator to introduce improved landscape and urban planning in the future to minimize the negative impact of LST on urban sustainability.

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“…Rapid changes in the landscape have resulted in the conversion of natural vegetation and agricultural land into built-up (impervious) land, such as buildings, parking lots, roads, and other constructions [1][2][3][4]. This has caused several environmental problems at local, regional, and global scales [5], such as decreases in agricultural land [6]; habitat destruction [5,7,8]; air, soil, and water contamination [9,10]; increases in vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue [11]; decreases in green space [12,13]; and increases Land Surface Temperature (LST) [14][15][16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Landscape Changes and their Impacts on Land Surface Temperature in Tropical Hill Stations in South Asia: A Case Study of Nuwara Eliya, Sri Lanka

Ranagalage¹,

Murayama²,

Dissanayake³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Although urbanization has contributed to improving living conditions, it has had negative impacts on the natural environment in the urbanized areas. Urbanization has changed the urban landscape and resulted in increasing land surface temperature (LST). Thus, studies related to LST in various urban environments have become a popular research topic. However, few LST studies focusing on the mountain landscapes (i.e. hill stations) have been carried out. The primary objective of this study is to investigate changes in the landscape and their impacts on LST intensity (LSTI) in the tropical mountain city of Nuwara Eliya, Sri Lanka. The study utilized annual median temperatures extracted from Landsat data collected from 1996 to 2017 based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) interface. The fractions of built-up (BL), forest (FL), and agricultural (AL) land were calculated using land use and cover maps based on the urban-rural zone (URZ) analysis. The urban-rural margin was demarcated based on the fraction of BL (<10%) and LSTI was measured using the mean LST difference in the urban-rural zone. In addition, the mixture of land use types was calculated using the AL/FL and BL/FL fraction ratios, and grid-based density analysis. The result shows that the BL in all URZ rapidly developed, while AL decreased during the period 1996 to 2017. There was minimal change in the forest area of the Nuwara Eliya owing to the government forest preservation policies. The fraction of the BL increased from 32.4% in 1996 to 58.7% in 2017 in the city center zone (URZ1) resulting in increased mean LST by 4.7 °C. Furthermore, the increase of the BL/FL fraction ratio and the decrease of the AL/FL fraction ratio were positively correlated with the mean LST. Grid-based analysis showed an increasing positive relationship between mean LST and density of BL. This indicated that BL density has been a crucial element in increasing LST in the study area. The results of this study will be a useful indicator to introduce improved landscape and urban planning in the future to minimize the negative impact of LST on urban sustainability.

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Scenario-based modelling for urban sustainability focusing on changes in cropland under rapid urbanization: A case study of Hangzhou from 1990 to 2035

Cited by 63 publications

References 57 publications

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Land Use/Cover Patterns and Their Relationship with Land Surface Temperature in Nanjing, China

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Land Use/Cover Patterns and Their Relationship with Land Surface Temperature in Nanjing, China

The Impacts of Landscape Changes on Annual Mean Land Surface Temperature in the Tropical Mountain City of Sri Lanka: A Case Study of Nuwara Eliya (1996–2017)

Landscape Changes and their Impacts on Land Surface Temperature in Tropical Hill Stations in South Asia: A Case Study of Nuwara Eliya, Sri Lanka

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