Scenario-based Analysis of the Impacts of Lake Drying on Sustainable Food Production

Abstract

In many parts of the world, lake drying is caused by water management failures, while the phenomenon is exacerbated by climate change. Lake Urmia in Northern Iran is drying up at such an alarming rate that it is considered to be a dying lake, which has dire consequences for the whole region. While salinization caused by a dying lake is well understood and known to influence the local and regional food production, other potential impacts are as yet unknown. Food production in the Urmia region has predominantly been regionally-oriented and sustainable, particularly in terms of water demand. To explore current and projected impacts of the dying lake on sustainable food production (SFP) we investigated changes in climatic conditions, land use, and land degradation for the period 1990-2020. We examined the environmental impacts of lake drought on SFP through an integrated scenario-based geoinformation framework. The results show that the lake drought has significantly affected food production and has reduced the proportion of SFP over the past three decades. Based on a combination of cellular automata and Markov modelling, the conditions are projected for the next 30 years and are predicted to exacerbate further. To mitigate these issues and support SFP, this research provides some policy recommendations and results for tangible action plans. We consider the modification of cropping patterns towards low water demand crops as one the cheapest and most efficient solutions for reducing the overall agricultural water consumption.

Health effects of shrinking hyper-saline lakes: spatiotemporal modeling of the Lake Urmia drought on the local population, case study of the Shabestar County

“…Large lakes are significant freshwater sources that now face critical consequences due to climate change and associated phenomena 5 . Some noteworthy examples include Lake Urmia, Lake Chad, the Sea of Galilee, and Aral 6 . Salt-dust scattering occurs in areas where saline lakes are drying up and this can have severe negative impacts on the health of the residents in the area 7 .…”

The trilemma of food production, clean energy, and water: COP27 perspective of global economy

“…Reducing water stress and promoting water use efficiency are critical in safeguarding future food production. Such a process requires understanding local water stresses and policies that can promote sustainable water use practices that minimize the adverse effects on land use, food production, and prices (Feizizzadeh et al, 2021). The upward trend that can be seen in the figure reflects an increase in the percentage of land that is being used for agricultural purposes.…”