Scale Transitions and the Evolution of Global Governance since the Bronze Age

Chase‐Dunn, Christopher; Niemeyer, Richard; Álvarez, Alexis; Inoue, Hiroko

doi:10.1057/9780230618381_13

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…3 the yearly average temperatures reconstructed from stalagmite thicknesses from Shihua Cave near Beijing, China [52]. Even though these average temperatures do not show any time dependence, it is widely believed that the climate change in Central Asia around 100 BC was the main reason for the Hsiung-nu expansion towards the west [53]. Beijing, China is not considered a part of Central Asia, but it is a nearby location for which we have reliable data.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 80%

Climate Prediction through Statistical Methods

Akgun,

Isvan,

Tuter

et al. 2008

Preprint

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Climate change is a reality of today. Paleoclimatic proxies and climate predictions based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models provide us with temperature data. Using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, we are investigating the statistical connection between the climate types of the present and these local temperatures. We are relating this issue to some well-known historic climate shifts. Our main result is that the temperature fluctuations with or without a temperature scale attached to them, can be used to classify climates in the absence of other indicators such as pan evaporation and precipitation.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 80%

Climate Prediction through Statistical Methods

Akgun,

Isvan,

Tuter

et al. 2008

Preprint

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“…Finally, Figure 3 focuses entirely on the temporal dynamics in the size of greatest empires. It suggests that the scale of largest states increased not gradually, but in spurts, or "upward sweeps" (Chase-Dunn et al 2009). The first upward sweep occurred during the II millennium BCE, when the maximum empire size first broke through the threshold of 1 Mm 2 .…”

Section: Empires Per Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Warfare and the Evolution of Social Complexity: A Multilevel-Selection Approach

Turchin¹

2010

Structure and Dynamics: eJournal of Anthropological and Related Sciences

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Multilevel selection is a powerful theoretical framework for understanding how complex hierarchical systems evolve by iteratively adding control levels. Here I apply this framework to a major transition in human social evolution, from small-scale egalitarian groups to large-scale hierarchical societies such as states and empires. A major mathematical result in multilevel selection, the Price equation, specifies the conditions concerning the structure of cultural variation and selective pressures that promote evolution of larger-scale societies. Specifically, large states should arise in regions where culturally very different people are in contact, and where interpolity competition -warfare -is particularly intense. For the period of human history from the Axial Age to the Age of Discovery (c.500 BCE-1500 CE), conditions particularly favorable for the rise of large empires obtained on steppe frontiers, contact regions between nomadic pastoralists and settled agriculturalists. An empirical investigation of warfare lethality, focusing on the fates of populations of conquered cities, indicates that genocide was an order of magnitude more frequent in steppefrontier wars than in wars between culturally similar groups. An overall empirical test of the theory's predictions shows that over ninety percent of largest historical empires arose in world regions classified as steppe frontiers. Introduction: the Puzzle of UltrasocialityWhen World War I broke out in August 1914 patriotic crowds in Vienna, Berlin, and London demonstrated in support of their governments' decision to enter the war. More remarkably, young men volunteered in large numbers for military service. In the United Kingdom 300,000 men enlisted in August alone, and more than 2.5 million throughout the war (Ferguson 1999:198). The British government did not need to institute the draft until 1916. Huge numbers of these men were killed (close to a million in Britain alone); others were physically maimed (1.6 million in Britain) or psychologically scarred for life (Urlanis 1971). Such willingness to sacrifice life and limb for the sake of a nation-an imaginary construct with uncertain boundaries encompassing millions of people, most of whom could never even hope to meet each other-presents a huge problem to the standard evolutionary theory. It is a central part of the "puzzle of ultrasociality"-the ability of humans to form cooperating societies consisting of huge numbers of genetically unrelated individuals (Campbell 1983, Richerson andBoyd 1998).It may seem strange to equate cooperation with warfare, but war encompasses both morally repugnant atrocities and morally uplifting stories of selfless heroism. A fruitful conceptual framework for the study of this human activity, which involves both coercion and cooperation, is offered by the theory of multilevel selection (Sober and

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Generalization in Comparative History

Clark

2019

Comp. Sociol.

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This article examines a sample of comparative-historical literature to assess when convincing generalizations are made and when they are not. Although a variety of factors can affect the potential for generalization, the focus here is on the difference between diachronic and synchronic generalizations. Separate sections are devoted to synchronic-idiographic, synchronic-nomothetic, diachronic-idiographic, and diachronic-nomothetic analysis and research. Evidence is presented to demonstrate that synchronic generalizations are common in comparative history. The most attention in the article is, however, given to the challenges faced when generalizing diachronically and especially when generalizing sequentially. The article ends with a discussion of the effects of inter-societal forces on comparative-historical generalization and with a conclusion outlining when comparative-historical generalizations seem to be more or less successful.

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Scale Transitions and the Evolution of Global Governance since the Bronze Age

Cited by 3 publications

References 28 publications

Climate Prediction through Statistical Methods

Climate Prediction through Statistical Methods

Warfare and the Evolution of Social Complexity: A Multilevel-Selection Approach

Generalization in Comparative History

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