Scalability of regional climate change in Europe for high-end scenarios

Christensen, Ole; Yang, Shuting; Boberg, Fredrik; Maule, Cathrine Fox; Thejll, Peter; Olesen, Martin; Drews, Martin; Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg

doi:10.3354/cr01286

Cited by 33 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…1A), reaching 4°C by 2083, continuing to a median projected warming of almost 5°C by 2100 (6,20), with consequent global mean sea level rises (Fig. 1B).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C

Jevrejeva

Jackson

Riva

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

186

140

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Two degrees of global warming above the preindustrial level is widely suggested as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. This "2°C" threshold is likely to be reached between 2040 and 2050 for both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5. Resulting sea level rises will not be globally uniform, due to ocean dynamical processes and changes in gravity associated with water mass redistribution. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2°C goal. By 2040, with a 2°C warming under the RCP8.5 scenario, more than 90% of coastal areas will experience sea level rise exceeding the global estimate of 0.2 m, with up to 0.4 m expected along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway. With a 5°C rise by 2100, sea level will rise rapidly, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the coastline will exceed the global sea level rise at the 95th percentile upper limit of 1.8 m. Under RCP8.5, by 2100, New York may expect rises of 1.09 m, Guangzhou may expect rises of 0.91 m, and Lagos may expect rises of 0.90 m, with the 95th percentile upper limit of 2.24 m, 1.93 m, and 1.92 m, respectively. The coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems, will have a very limited time after midcentury to adapt to sea level rises unprecedented since the dawn of the Bronze Age.2°warming | coastal sea level rise | probabilistic sea level projections | regional sea level rise T he threshold for dangerous climate change is widely reported to be about 2°C above preindustrial temperature; therefore, international efforts have been generally aimed at keeping average global temperatures below this (1, 2). Fragile coastal ecosystems (3) and increasing concentrations of population and economic activity in maritime cities (4) are reasons why future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of the warming climate (5). Furthermore, sea level is set to continue to rise for centuries after greenhouse gas emissions concentrations are stabilized due to system inertia and feedback time scales (5-7). Impact, risk, adaptation policies, and long-term decision-making in coastal areas depend on regional and local sea level rise projections, and local projections can differ substantially from the global one (6,(8)(9)(10)(11). Coastal sea level projections should also take into account the local vertical land movement that is caused both by glacial isostatic adjustments (GIAs) due to redistribution of masses subsequent to the end of the last ice age (12-14), and subsidence due to groundwater extraction, urbanization, tectonics, and river delta sedimentation rates (15).Global sea level is an integrated climate system response to changes in radiative forcing that alters the dynamics and thermodynamics of the atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere. In a warming climate, global sea level will rise due to melting of land-based glaciers and ice sheets and from the thermal expansion o...

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“…1A), reaching 4°C by 2083, continuing to a median projected warming of almost 5°C by 2100 (6,20), with consequent global mean sea level rises (Fig. 1B).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C

Jevrejeva

Jackson

Riva

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

186

140

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…This period was then used as a representation of the future period, for convenience referred to as 2071− 2099, although it may occur at another point in time. Further information on the climate model can be found in Christensen et al (2015). Due to scale differences and climate model biases, the GCM-RCM output needs to be downscaled and bias corrected before it can be used to force hydrological and lake models.…”

Section: Climate Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nakicenovic et al 2000), but rather an artificially created climatic state. The emission scenario was run in the global and regional climate model (GCM-RCM) coupling of ECEARTH-HIRHAM (Christensen et al 2007, Hazeleger et al 2012. After reaching a 6°C increase in air temperature relative to a baseline period comprising the years 1986−2005, the CO 2 concentration was held constant, while the model was run for an additional 29 yr.…”

Section: Climate Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the present study we evaluate the consequences of such extreme changes for temperate Danish lakes. In this context, Christensen et al (2015) analyzed to what extent the actual projected RCP emission scenarios (van Vuuren et al 2011) reach the same temperature level as the 6°C scenario. They found that 8 out of 9 model runs for the RCP8.5 scenario reached a 6°C warming before 2300.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Projecting the future ecological state of lakes in Denmark in a 6 degree warming scenario

Trolle¹,

Nielsen²,

Rolighed³

et al. 2015

Clim. Res.

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Lakes are highly sensitive to climate change, and climate warming is known to induce eutrophication symptoms in temperate lakes. In Denmark, climate is projected to cause increased precipitation in winter and increased air temperatures throughout the year by the end of the 21st century. Looking further into the future, the warming trend is projected to continue and likely reach a 6°C increase around the 22nd century (relative to a baseline period of 1986−2005). In the present study, we evaluate the consequences of such extreme changes for temperate Danish lakes. We use a multifaceted modelling approach by combining an eco-hydrological model to estimate future water runoff and catchment nutrient exports with both mechanistic and empirical lake models, describing key biogeochemical indicators in lakes, in order to quantify the effects of future nutrient loads and air temperature on lake ecosystems. Our model projections for the future scenario suggest that annual water runoff will increase (46%), driving also increases in exports of nitrogen and phosphorus (13 and 64%, respectively). Both the mechanistic and empirical modelling approaches suggest that phytoplankton biomass will increase and that potentially toxin-producing cyanobacteria may become a dominant feature of the phytoplankton community from spring. Warming and increased nutrient loads also affect the food webs within the lakes in the direction of higher fish control of algae-grazing water fleas, further reinforcing eutrophication. To be able to mitigate these eutrophication effects, external nutrient loading to the lakes must be reduced considerably. 64: 55-72, 2015 mental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) noted that the present emissions follow a trajectory that is on or above the RCP8.5 scenario, leading to a likely global warming between 2.6° and 4.8°C for the period 2081−2100 compared to 1986−2005(Collins et al. 2013. However, the warming will continue beyond 2100, and the expected (global mean) temperature increase under the Representative Concentration Pathway scenario RCP8.5 by 2181−2200 is 6.5°C, with a likely range between 3.3° and 9.8°C, rising even further by 2300. Hence, as long as the current emissions continue to increase, there is a global warming potential equivalent to 6°C, either before or, most likely, shortly after 2100 (Christensen et al. 2015, this Special). In the present study we evaluate the consequences of such extreme changes for temperate Danish lakes. In this context, Christensen et al. (2015) analyzed to what extent the actual projected RCP emission scenarios (van Vuuren et al. 2011) reach the same temperature level as the 6°C scenario. They found that 8 out of 9 model runs for the RCP8.5 scenario reached a 6°C warming before 2300. This indicates that even though a 6°C warming seems unlikely within the present century (Collins et al. 2013), it is plausible and very likely to occur at some time if the present level of emissions continues. KEY WORDS: Extreme warming · Impacts · Lakes Contribution to CR Special 3...

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“…Unlike the study by Yang et al (2010), the expected changes in this study are not calculated directly using the DC method on Regional Climate Model output; they are derived from comprehensive state-ofthe-art studies where all available data are used to determine realistic expectations to changes to precipitation due to climate change (e.g. Giorgi, 2006;Kendon et al, 2008;Christensen et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Formulating and testing a method for perturbing precipitation time series to reflect anticipated climatic changes

Sørup

Georgiadis

Gregersen

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Urban water infrastructure has very long planning horizons, and planning is thus very dependent on reliable estimates of the impacts of climate change. Many urban water systems are designed using time series with a high temporal resolution. To assess the impact of climate change on these systems, similarly high-resolution precipitation time series for future climate are necessary. Climate models cannot at their current resolutions provide these time series at the relevant scales. Known methods for stochastic downscaling of climate change to urban hydrological scales have known shortcomings in constructing realistic climate-changed precipitation time series at the sub-hourly scale. In the present study we present a deterministic methodology to perturb historical precipitation time series at the minute scale to reflect non-linear expectations to climate change. The methodology shows good skill in meeting the expectations to climate change in extremes at the event scale when evaluated at different timescales from the minute to the daily scale. The methodology also shows good skill with respect to representing expected changes of seasonal precipitation. The methodology is very robust against the actual magnitude of the expected changes as well as the direction of the changes (increase or decrease), even for situations where the extremes are increasing for seasons that in general should have a decreasing trend in precipitation. The methodology can provide planners with valuable time series representing future climate that can be used as input to urban hydrological models and give better estimates of climate change impacts on these systems.

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Scalability of regional climate change in Europe for high-end scenarios

Cited by 33 publications

References 31 publications

Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C

Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C

Projecting the future ecological state of lakes in Denmark in a 6 degree warming scenario

Formulating and testing a method for perturbing precipitation time series to reflect anticipated climatic changes

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