SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in Germany - A Population Based Sequential Study in Five Regions

Gornyk, Daniela; Harries, Manuela; Gloeckner, Stephan; Strengert, Monika; Kerrinnes, Tobias; Bojara, Gerhard; Castell, Stefanie; Frank, Kerstin; Gubbe, Knut; Heise, Jana-Kristin; Hernández, Pilar; Kappert, Oliver; Kern, Winfried V.; Illig, Thomas; Klopp, Norman; Maaß, Henrike; Ortmann, Julia; Kessel, Barbora; Roller, Gottfried; Schlueter, Monike; Tonn, Torsten; Ziemons, Micheal; Kemmling, Yvonne; Lange, Berit; Krause, Gérard

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3834300

Cited by 16 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…As initial conditions, we set I (0) = 2.4 × 10 −3 and R (0) = 4.2 × 10 −2 , which corresponds respectively to twice the sum of the reported number of new cases in the 5 days before 1 January 2021 in Germany and twice the reported number of total cases on 1 January 2021 [ 25 ], making the assumption that only 50% of the cases are detected [ 26 ]. The number of recovered cases is in line with seroprevalence studies in Germany at this time [ 27 , 28 ]. To account for the uncertainty in the initial value of infectious cases I (0), we explore the dynamics with other values in the electronic supplementary material, finding that the qualitative results remain the same (figure S8).…”

Section: The Modelsupporting

confidence: 80%

Vaccination strategies when vaccines are scarce: on conflicts between reducing the burden and avoiding the evolution of escape mutants

Geoffroy

Traulsen

Uecker

2022

J. R. Soc. Interface.

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When vaccine supply is limited but population immunization urgent, the allocation of the available doses needs to be carefully considered. One aspect of dose allocation is the time interval between the first and the second injections in two-dose vaccines. By stretching this interval, more individuals can be vaccinated with the first dose more quickly, which can be beneficial in reducing case numbers, provided a single dose is sufficiently effective. On the other hand, there has been concern that intermediate levels of immunity in partially vaccinated individuals may favour the evolution of vaccine escape mutants. In that case, a large fraction of half-vaccinated individuals would pose a risk—but only if they encounter the virus. This raises the question whether there is a conflict between reducing the burden and the risk of vaccine escape evolution or not. We develop an SIR-type model to assess the population-level effects of the timing of the second dose. Trade-offs can occur both if vaccine escape evolution is more likely or if it is less likely in half-vaccinated than in unvaccinated individuals. Their presence or absence depends on the efficacies for susceptibility and transmissibility elicited by a single dose.

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Section: The Modelsupporting

confidence: 80%

Vaccination strategies when vaccines are scarce: on conflicts between reducing the burden and avoiding the evolution of escape mutants

Geoffroy

Traulsen

Uecker

2022

J. R. Soc. Interface.

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“…Seroconversion studies in humans including all regions of Germany have not been conducted during the first wave. However, two investigations performed between March and May 2020 (Fischer et al., 2020) and between July and December 2020 (Gornyk et al., 2021) revealed a seroconversion rate between 1% and 2%. Hence, both studies found similar results to the one we found in cats, which highlights again, that cats are a valuable indicator concerning the prevalence of SARS‐CoV‐2 antibodies in the human population.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prevalence of anti‐severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 antibodies in cats in Germany and other European countries in the early phase of the coronavirus disease‐19 pandemic

Adler

Weber

Wernike

et al. 2022

Zoonoses and Public Health

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During the first months of the coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2), cases of human‐to‐cat transmission were reported. Seroconversion was shown in cats infected under experimental and natural conditions. This large‐scale survey of 1,005 serum samples was conducted to investigate anti‐SARS‐CoV‐2 antibody prevalence in domestic cats during the first 7 months of the pandemic in Germany and other European countries. In addition, we compared the sensitivity and specificity of two multispecies SARS‐CoV‐2 antibody enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). Results were confirmed by using an indirect immunofluorescence test (iIFT) and a surrogate virus neutralization test (sVNT). Sera that were highly positive for feline coronavirus (FCoV) antibodies ( n = 103) were included to correct for cross‐reactivity of the tests used. Our results showed an overall SARS‐CoV‐2 seropositivity of 1.9% ( n = 19) in a receptor‐binding domain (RBD)‐based ELISA, additional 0.8% ( n = 8) were giving inconclusive results. In contrast, a nucleocapsid‐based ELISA revealed 0.5% ( n = 5) positive and 0.2% ( n = 2) inconclusive results. While the iIFT and sVNT confirmed 100% of positive and 50%–57.1% of the doubtful results as determined in the RBD ELISA, the nucleocapsid‐based assay showed a high discrepancy and only one of the five positive results could be confirmed. The results indicate significant deficits of the nucleocapsid‐based ELISA with respect to sensitivity and specificity. Due to a significantly higher rate (5.8%) of positive results in the group of highly FCoV antibody‐positive samples, cross‐reactivity of the FCoV‐ELISA with SARS‐CoV‐2 antibodies cannot be excluded. Furthermore, we investigated the impact of direct contact of domestic cats ( n = 23) to SARS‐CoV‐2 positive owners. Considering one inconclusive result, which got confirmed by iIFT, this exposure did not lead to a significantly higher prevalence (4.4%; p = .358) among tested subjects. Overall, we conclude that cats are a negligible entity with respect to virus transmission in Europe.

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“…Based on pandemic phase-and age-specific underdetection ratios derived from populationbased studies among adults [12] and children [17,18,32], we estimated average age-specific underdetection ratios for different phases of the pandemic in Germany (see Table 1), which we implemented in our model. Gornyk et al [12] investigated seroprevalence estimates for SARS-CoV-2 that indicated an age-specific underreporting ratio (infected to reported) of COVID-19 transmission in a large (>25000 participants, seven large regions in Germany) population-based seroprevalence study and we used their estimates for age-specific underdetection ratios in adults. For children, we used seroprevalence studies available for the south of Germany during the first and second waves [17,18,32].…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Underdetection of actual infection activity by notified case reports to authorities is a wellknown limitation, but not often included in modeling efforts, even less using age-specific underreporting estimates [20,27]. For Germany, population-based studies suggest that actual infection activity is heterogeneous across regions, time points, and age groups [12]. However, both age and underdetection of infections are highly relevant for predicting regional infection events, especially for different contact areas and for estimating the effectiveness of interventions [14] as well as for predicting hospitalizations and deaths correctly.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our model allows us to assess the age-dependent contribution of contacts to the transmission of COVID-19 in Germany. We assess the sensitivity of infection transmission by applying underdetection ratios from large population-based seroprevalence studies of adults [12] and children [17,32]. We then analyze and compare the transmission dynamics across age groups during the first three infection waves in Germany, taking underdetection into account.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Age-specific Contribution of Contacts to Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany

Rodiah

Vanella

Kuhlmann

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Introduction: Current estimates of pandemic spread using infectious disease models in Germany for SARS-CoV-2 often do not use age-specific infection parameters and are not always based on known contact matrices of the population. They also do not usually include setting-based information of reported cases and do not account for age-specific underdetection of reported cases. Here, we report likely pandemic spread using an age-structured model to understand the age- and setting-specific contribution of contacts to transmission during all phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany.Methods: We developed a deterministic SEIRS model using a pre-pandemic contact matrix. The model is optimized to fit reported age-specific SARS-CoV-2 incidences from the Robert Koch Institute, includes information on setting-specific reported cases in schools and integrates age and pandemic period-specific parameters for underdetection of reported cases deduced from a large population-based seroprevalence study. Results: We showed that taking underreporting into account, younger adults and teenagers are the main contributors to infections during the first three pandemic waves in Germany. Overall, the contribution of contacts in schools to the total cases in the population was below 10% during the third wave. Discussion: Accounting for the pandemic phase and age-specific underreporting seems important to correctly identify those parts of the population where quarantine, testing, vaccination, and contact-reduction measures are likely to be most effective and efficient. In the future, we will aim to compare current model estimates with currently emerging during-pandemic age-specific contact survey data.

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SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in Germany - A Population Based Sequential Study in Five Regions

Cited by 16 publications

References 25 publications

Vaccination strategies when vaccines are scarce: on conflicts between reducing the burden and avoiding the evolution of escape mutants

Vaccination strategies when vaccines are scarce: on conflicts between reducing the burden and avoiding the evolution of escape mutants

Prevalence of anti‐severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 antibodies in cats in Germany and other European countries in the early phase of the coronavirus disease‐19 pandemic

Age-specific Contribution of Contacts to Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany

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