SARS-CoV-2 circulation in the school setting: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Martinoli, Chiara; Vecchia, Carlo La; Raimondi, Sara; Bellerba, Federica; Sasso, C.; Cammarata, Giulio; Gandini, Sara

doi:10.1101/2021.09.03.21263088

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Furthermore, our analysis is limited by the fact that the officially registered incidences depend on local COVID-19 test policies and the corresponding infrastructural conditions. Policies with respect to opening of schools and corresponding test strategies are particularly important since the impact of kids and juveniles as possible epidemic drivers is controversially debated (20)(21)(22)(23)(24)(25). However, it seems more plausible that the average frequency of testing is even less in regions with a high "anti-corona attitude" prevalence, which thus would even amplify our result.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 79%

Local socio-structural predictors of COVID-19 incidence in Germany

Qamar

Gronwald

Timmesfeld

et al. 2022

Front. Public Health

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Socio-economic conditions and social attitudes are known to represent epidemiological determinants. Credible knowledge on socio-economic driving factors of the COVID-19 epidemic is still incomplete. Based on linear random effects regression, an ecological model is derived to estimate COVID-19 incidence in German rural/urban districts from local socio-economic factors and popularity of political parties in terms of their share of vote. Thereby, records provided by Germany's public health institute (Robert Koch Institute) of weekly notified 7-day incidences per 100,000 inhabitants per district from the outset of the epidemic in 2020 up to December 1, 2021, are used to construct the dependent variable. Local socio-economic conditions including share of votes, retrieved from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, have been used as potential risk factors. Socio-economic parameters like per capita income, proportions of protection seekers and social benefit claimants, and educational level have negligible impact on incidence. To the contrary, incidence significantly increases with population density and we observe a strong association with vote shares. Popularity of the right-wing party Alternative for Germany (AfD) bears a considerable risk of increasing COVID-19 incidence both in terms of predicting the maximum incidences during three epidemic periods (alternatively, cumulative incidences over the periods are used to quantify the dependent variable) and in a time-continuous sense. Thus, districts with high AfD popularity rank on top in the time-average regarding COVID-19 incidence. The impact of the popularity of the Free Democrats (FDP) is markedly intermittent in the course of time showing two pronounced peaks in incidence but also occasional drops. A moderate risk emanates from popularities of the Green Party (GRÜNE) and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) compared to the other parties with lowest risk level. In order to effectively combat the COVID-19 epidemic, public health policymakers are well-advised to account for social attitudes and behavioral patterns reflected in local popularities of political parties, which are conceived as proper surrogates for these attitudes. Whilst causal relations between social attitudes and the presence of parties remain obscure, the political landscape in terms of share of votes constitutes at least viable predictive “markers” relevant for public health policy making.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 79%

Local socio-structural predictors of COVID-19 incidence in Germany

Qamar

Gronwald

Timmesfeld

et al. 2022

Front. Public Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Furthermore, our analysis is limited by the fact that the officially registered incidences depend on local COVID-19 test policies and the corresponding infrastructural conditions. Policies with respect to opening of schools and corresponding test strategies are particularly important since the impact of kids and juveniles as possible epidemic drivers is controversially debated [19][20][21][22][23][24]. However, it seems more plausible that the average frequency of testing is even less in regions with a high "anti-corona attitude" prevalence, which thus would even amplify our result.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Local Sociostructural Predictors of COVID-19 Incidence in Germany

Qamar¹,

Gronwald²,

Timmesfeld³

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Socioeconomic conditions and social attitudes are known to represent epidemiological determinants. Credible knowledge on socioeconomic driving factors of the COVID-19 epidemic is still incomplete. Based on a linear random effects regression, a predictive model is derived to estimate COVID-19 incidence in German rural districts from local socioeconomic factors and popularity of political parties in terms of their share of vote. Thereby, time series provided by Germany's public health institute (Robert Koch Institute) of weekly notified 7-day incidences per 100,000 inhabitants per district from the outset of the epidemic in 2020 up to December 1, 2021, have been used to construct the dependent variable. Local socioeconomic conditions including share of votes, retrieved from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, have been used as potential risk factors. Popularity of the right-wing party Alternative for Germany (AfD) bears a considerable risk of increasing COVID-19 incidence both in terms of predicting the maximum incidences during three epidemic periods (alternatively, cumulative incidences over the periods are used to quantify the dependent variable) and in a time-continuous sense. Thus, districts with high AfD popularity rank on top in the time-average regarding COVID-19 incidence. The impact of the popularity of the Free Democrats (FDP) is markedly intermittent in the course of time showing two pronounced peaks in incidence but also occasional drops. A moderate risk emanates from popularities of the Green Party (GRÜNE) and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) compared to the other parties with lowest risk level. Socioeconomic parameters like \emph{per capita} income, proportions of protection seekers and social benefit claimants, and educational level have negligible impact. To the contrary, incidence significantly increases with population density. In order to effectively combat the COVID-19 epidemic, public health policymakers are well advised to account for social attitudes and behavioural patterns reflected in local popularities of political parties, which are conceived as proper surrogates for these attitudes. Whilst causal relations between social attitudes and the presence of parties remain obscure, the political landscape in terms of share of votes constitutes at least viable predictive "markers" relevant for public health policy making.

show abstract

“…Clearly, our analysis is limited by the fact that the officially registered incidences depend on local COVID-19 test policies and the corresponding infrastructural conditions. Policies with respect to opening of schools and corresponding test strategies are particularly important since the impact of kids and juveniles as possible epidemic drivers is controversially debated [20][21][22][23][24][25]. However, it seems more plausible that the average frequency of testing is even less in regions with a high "anti-corona attitude" prevalence, which thus would even amplify our result.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Local Sociostructural Predictors of COVID-19 Incidence in Germany

Qamar¹,

Gronwald²,

Timmesfeld³

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Socioeconomic conditions and social attitudes are known to represent epidemiological determinants. Credible knowledge on socioeconomic driving factors of the COVID-19 epidemic is still incomplete. Based on a linear random effects regression, a predictive model is derived to estimate COVID-19 incidence in German rural districts from local socioeconomic factors and popularity of political parties in terms of their share of vote. Thereby, time series provided by Germany’s public health institute (Robert Koch Institute) of weekly notified 7-day incidences per 100,000 inhabitants per district from the outset of the epidemic in 2020 up to December 1, 2021, have been used to construct the dependent variable. Local socioeconomic conditions including share of votes, retrieved from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, have been used as potential risk factors. Popularity of the right-wing party Alternative for Germany (AfD) bears a considerable risk of increasing COVID-19 incidence both in terms of predicting the maximum incidences during three epidemic periods and in a time-continuous sense. Thus, districts with high AfD popularity rank on top in the time-average regarding COVID-19 incidence. The impact of the popularity of the Free Democrats (FDP) is markedly intermittent in the course of time showing two pronounced peaks in incidence but also occasional drops. Socioeconomic parameters like per capita income, proportions of protection seekers and social benefit claimants, and educational level have negligible impact. A moderate risk emanates from popularities of the Green Party (GRÜNE) and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) compared to the other parties with lowest risk level. In order to effectively combat the COVID-19 epidemic, public health policymakers are well advised to account for social attitudes and behavioural patterns reflected in local popularities of political parties, which are conceived as proper surrogates for these attitudes.

show abstract

SARS-CoV-2 circulation in the school setting: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Cited by 3 publications

References 52 publications

Local socio-structural predictors of COVID-19 incidence in Germany

Local socio-structural predictors of COVID-19 incidence in Germany

Local Sociostructural Predictors of COVID-19 Incidence in Germany

Local Sociostructural Predictors of COVID-19 Incidence in Germany

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