Sampling technique for launcher impact safety zone estimation

Mitard, J.; Pastel, Rudy

doi:10.1016/j.actaastro.2009.08.021

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…Consequently, the more calculations are performed, the more accurately the DR is determined. In the study [25], the authors emphasized this point. They stated that, when dealing with uncommon events with probabilities below 10 −2 , 500 Monte Carlo simulations are obviously not appropriate but can be employed for events with probabilities higher than 0.1.…”

Section: Monte Carlo Methods and Alternative Optionsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Methods for the Calculation and Control of Launch Vehicle Drop Regions

et al. 2023

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The article aims at reviewing the drop regions (DR) of the launch vehicles (LV) separating parts (SP) and methods of their determination. The DRs include sea and land areas; going beyond them is associated with a number of environmental, economic, and political factors. Their combination dictates the need to ensure the safety of the people, transport, infrastructure, and environment from the negative impact of LV SPs and fuel residues. The Monte Carlo method is mostly used to determine the impact areas. It enables an estimation of the probability of the SPs of LVs falling in certain areas, constituting the DRs. These points are varied according to a set of different initial parameters. The methods of controlling the impact areas are contingently divided into engineering (based on a change in the design appearance of the LV), mathematical (which includes the changes in or optimization of the LV’s trajectory or its SP), and “soft landing” (implying the return of the LV’s to the spaceport or to a certain prepared area). The present analysis can be used as a starting point when choosing a method for determining and controlling the projected LVs and the SPs’ area of impact.

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Section: Monte Carlo Methods and Alternative Optionsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Methods for the Calculation and Control of Launch Vehicle Drop Regions

et al. 2023

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“…This paper considers an uncertain model that estimates the fall-back positions of a space launcher. In this paper, this spatial launcher is a solid rocket booster [31] that is the first stage of a space launcher. Its weight is about 30 000 kg and the launch point is at 50 km height with a slope of 30 degrees.…”

Section: Fall-back Positioning Of a Space Launcher Stagementioning

confidence: 99%

Plug-in estimation of d-dimensional density minimum volume set of a rare event in a complex system

Mitard

Pastel

2011

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O:

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International audienceVarious reliability or hedging problems boil down to quantile estimation. However, real-life systems are usually multidimensional and thus often imply multidimensional density minimum volume set estimation which is usually done with Monte Carlo simulations. Increasing safety standards create a need for density minimum volume set estimation with low probability that crude Monte Carlo cannot fulfil. This paper proposes a new importance sampling algorithm that estimates efficiently multidimensional density minimum volume sets for extreme probability. It also presents some numerical results on a simple bidimensional Gaussian case and on a realistic launcher impact safety zone estimation

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