Sahul’s megafauna were vulnerable to plant-community changes due to their position in the trophic network

Abstract

Extinctions stemming from environmental change often trigger trophic cascades and coextinctions. However, it remains unclear whether trophic cascades were a large contributor to the megafauna extinctions that swept across several continents in the Late Pleistocene. The pathways to megafauna extinctions are particularly unclear for Sahul (landmass comprising Australia and New Guinea), where extinctions happened earlier than on other continents. We investigated the role of bottom-up trophic cascades in Late Pleistocene Sahul by constructing pre-extinction (~ 80 ka) trophic network models of the vertebrate community of Naracoorte, south-eastern Australia. These models allowed us to predict vertebrate species’ vulnerability to cascading extinctions based on their position in the network. We tested whether the observed extinctions could be explained by bottom-up cascades, or if they should be attributed to other external causes. Species that disappeared from the community were more vulnerable, overall, to bottom-up cascades than were species that survived. The position of extinct species in the network – having few or no predators – also suggests they might have been particularly vulnerable to a new predator. These results provide quantitative evidence that trophic cascades and naivety to predators could have contributed to the megafauna extinction event in Sahul.

Coextinctions dominate future vertebrate losses from climate and land use change

“…Therefore, global-scale modeling of entire ecosystems appears to be the only viable solution, even if a challenging one ( 11 , 22 ). Recent developments in network approaches have shown that potential ecological interactions can be derived by applying different techniques (e.g., machine learning) to available datasets on species distribution and ecology ( 23 , 24 ). In previous work ( 11 ), we built on that idea to generate global-scale models of biodiversity by including species interactions using virtual species constructed to follow real-world archetypes.…”