Safety Forecasting and Early Warning of Highly Aggregated Tourist Crowds in China

Abstract

With tourism development in China, the influx of tourists in popular tourist attractions has become more frequent. However, space cannot accommodate such a large influx of tourists. Through empirical testing, this research identified 23 variables that influence the safety of tourists in crowded spaces. We divided 23 variables into three factors: pressure factors, state factors, and crowd management actions. Based on the data collected, this study proposes a system model that includes a feedback mechanism to evaluate the safety of highly aggregated tourist crowds (HATCs) and identify moments requiring security warnings. System simulation results showed that the safety level of HATCs presented a complex process of change in different situations. Thus, management can take corrective actions. We tested this model by simulating different crowding conditions and assessing the safety level of tourists. Different warning plans were proposed based on the simulated security level.

Benign or disordered development? Assessment and simulation of security of highly aggregated tourist crowds in China

“…Previous research suggests that a crowd accident was induced by the collapse of the dynamic system [ 25 ]. HATCs are a special dense crowd that can be regarded as a dynamic system [ 3 ]. The occurrence of HATC incidents is the result of multiple-factor interactions [ 75 ].…”

“…Due to a large number of tourists and the high density of this special tourist group, it is difficult to manage effectively. Nevertheless, tourist security has not received the attention it deserves [ 3 , 25 , 65 ].…”

“…Evaluating the HATC security status is a prerequisite for risk management. Researchers utilize system dynamics to assess and simulate HATC security status only in one specific situation [ 3 ]. It is worth noting that the security management of HATCs should focus on spatial attributes.…”

“…Modern society is becoming more crowded, and the incidents caused by it are increasing [ 1 – 3 ]. Due to the negative impacts on security, satisfaction, and loyalty, crowding has received growing research attention [ 4 – 7 ].…”

“…Yin et al [ 39 ] qualitatively proposed the occurrence mechanism and coping paths of incidents of HATCs while failed to examine, evaluate, and forecast the safety status of HATCs in different situations. The HATC, as a form of the crowd, is a living system [ 3 , 40 ]. Hence, it is necessary to quantitatively assess and forecast HATC security status for management interventions.…”