Safety assessment of marine high-end equipment based on evidential reasoning approach under fuzzy uncertainty

Abstract

Marine high-end equipment reflects a country’s comprehensive national strength. The safety assessment of it is very important to avoid accident either from human or facility factors. Attribute structure and assessment approach are two key points in the safety assessment of marine high-end equipment. In this paper, we construct a hierarchical attribute structure based on literature review and text mining of reports and news. The hierarchical attribute structure includes human, equipment, environment and management level. The correlations among these attributes are analyzed. The assessment standards of attributes are described in details. Different evaluation grades associated with attributes are transformed to a unified one by the given rules. As for the assessment approach, the evidential reasoning approach is applied for uncertain information fusion. Group analytical hierarchical process is used to generate attribute weights from a group of experts, where process aggregation method and result aggregation method are combined in a comprehensive way. The importance of expert is computed by the uncertainty measure of expert’s subjective judgment. A drilling platform is finally assessed by the proposed attribute structure and assessment approach to illustrate the effectiveness of the assessment framework.