Russian Exports and Imports of Trade Partners: Bilateral Asymmetries in Statistics

Abstract

The study was conducted to assess the discrepancies in the statistical accounting of Russian exports and imports of 50 partner countries in terms of trade relations for the period from 2012 to 2019. The work is based on the statistical data of Federal Customs Service of Russia, the database of the International Monetary Fund “Direction of Trade Statistics”, the data of Eurostat “Intra-and Extra-EU Trade” and the CIS Statistical Committee. Statistical methods of analysis were used: calculation of indicators of variation, dynamics, structure, correlation analysis, nonparametric tests for assessing differences between groups. The novelty of the study lies in the use of the indicator of relative export asymmetry to assess discrepancies in the reflection of export and import operations, which is calculated on the basis of the average value between Russian exports and imports of the partner country. This indicator does not give preference to either Russian or partner country accounting. The hypothesis put forward about the dependence of the magnitude of relative asymmetry on the volume of transactions with goods was not confirmed. Discrepancies in the statistical reporting of countries participating in foreign economic activity determine the factors associated with the peculiarities of accounting for foreign trade transactions. Differences in relative asymmetry depend on the country's membership in a particular group. It was most pronounced in the reflection of export operations in non-CIS countries, least of all - in the CIS countries. The level of relative export asymmetry in the period from 2012 to 2019 changed statistically significantly for all groups of countries: in the EU countries and other far-abroad countries it decreased, in the CIS countries it increased.