Russia-Ukraine War Is Not a Simple Riddle

Abstract

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is the most serious test of European security in the 21st century and the forgone conclusion is that Russia can easily prevail in the conflict, but this has not been the case. This article uses a contingency theory approach to report findings on the riddle why Russia has not easily defeated Ukraine. I report findings based on a contingency theoretical perspective that indicates Russian victory is unlikely because of negative contingencies having direct impact on the Russian economy including a sharp reduction in the value of the Russian ruble, the potential for political loss of support of the middle class for President Putin, diplomatic and political isolation and danger of escalation of the war, affecting Russia to a greater degree than the Ukraine.

US Strategy over Russian Invasion of Ukraine: An Analysis

“…(Kiryukhin, 2016) The probability of Russia emerging victorious in the Ukraine-Russia conflict is low, mostly owing to adverse economic consequences, diminishing political backing, international isolation, and the possibility for further escalation of hostilities. (Johannesson, 2017) The resolution of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia might potentially be achieved via diplomatic negotiations, reciprocal actions, and the establishment of trust, facilitated by increased involvement of prominent international organizations in fostering communication and cooperation. (Fu, 2022) The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict may be attributed to a confluence of causes, including the strained ties between Russia and Western nations, the worsening conditions inside Ukraine, and the acts undertaken by the Russian Federation in Ukraine during the preceding three decades.…”

The Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian War on Oil Markets in European Countries and Possible Solutions

“…Johannesson uses a contingency theory approach to report the investigation of the reason why Russia has not defeated Ukraine easily. Based on the contingency theoretical perspective, it came to the conclusion that Russia is unlikely to win the war because there are plenty of negative factors affecting Russia including the substantial devaluation of the Russian ruble and the isolation of diplomacy and politics, which is less affected by Ukraine [8].…”