Rural E-Commerce and Agricultural Carbon Emission Reduction: A Quasi-Natural Experiment from China’s Rural E-Commerce Demonstration County Program Based on 355 Cities in Ten Years

Abstract

Reducing carbon emissions is of paramount importance to the accomplishment of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. The effect of rural e-commerce on agricultural carbon emissions (ACEs) is controversial, and particularly the mechanism behind the effect is unknown. To identify the impact of rural e-commerce on agricultural carbon emissions and its mechanisms, we take advantage of China’s Rural E-Commerce Demonstration County Program (REDCP) as a quasi-natural experiment and use the multi-period difference-in-difference (DID) model to investigate the relationship between rural e-commerce and agricultural carbon emissions. Our data are based on panel data of 355 prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2019 in China. We identify that rural e-commerce can reduce agricultural carbon emissions by an average of 14.4%, but this effect is not long-lasting. Mechanism analyses suggest that the reduction effect of rural e-commerce on agricultural carbon emissions is mainly due to fostering agricultural economic growth, increasing the share of low-carbon industry, and improving agricultural total factor productivity (TFP). Further heterogeneity analyses demonstrate that rural e-commerce has better carbon emissions reduction performance in eastern cities as well as in non-major grain-producing cities in China.