Roughing it: terrain is crucial in identifying novel translocation sites for the vulnerable brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale pencillata)

Abstract

Translocations—the movement of species from one place to another—are likely to become more common as conservation attempts to protect small isolated populations from threats posed by extreme events such as bushfires. The recent Australian mega-fires burnt almost 40% of the habitat of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby ( Petrogale pencillata ), a threatened species whose distribution is already restricted, primarily due to predation by invasive species. This chronic threat of over-predation, coupled with the possible extinction of the genetically distinct southern population (approx. 40 individuals in the wild), makes this species a candidate for a conservation translocation. Here, we use species distribution models to identify translocation sites for the brush-tailed rock-wallaby. Our models exhibited high predictive accuracy, and show that terrain roughness, a surrogate for predator refugia, is the most important variable. Tasmania, which currently has no rock-wallabies, showed high suitability and is fox-free, making it a promising candidate site. We outline our argument for the trial translocation of rock-wallaby to Maria Island, located off Tasmania's eastern coast. This research offers a transparent assessment of the translocation potential of a threatened species, which can be adapted to other taxa and systems.

Vegetation structure derived from airborne laser scanning to assess species distribution and habitat suitability: The way forward

“…The other one is ‘predictive modelling’, which aims to predict unknown values of the biodiversity response variable based on pre‐specified relationships. Predictive SDM is especially useful in supporting conservation decision‐making, such as in selecting protected areas; identifying critical habitats that contain essential features for endangered species conservation; or predicting the impacts of climate or land use change on biodiversity (Araújo et al, 2019; Fricker et al, 2021; Guisan et al, 2013; Morris et al, 2020).…”

Climate change without extinction: Tasmania's small-mammal communities persisted through the Last Glacial Maximum–Holocene transition

“…However, unlike most of mainland continental Australia, Tasmania has retained 74-76% of its native vegetation coverage (Michaels et al 2010), and the European red fox (Vulpes vulpes) has not established, suggesting that its native-mammal communities may be largely intact in terms of the mix of species present since the LGM. Tasmania appears to have provided refugia for multiple species, both before and after Pleistocene-Holocene transition, supporting the view that it has potential as a translocation destination for south-eastern Australia's threatened species (Morris et al 2020). Equally, geographic isolation has clearly been critical to the survival of species already present in Tasmania, despite profound shifts in climate and vegetation since the LGM.Acknowledgements.…”