Roots of dissent: Trade liberalization and the rise of populism in Brazil

Abstract

Typescript prepared by Siméon Rapin. United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research provides economic analysis and policy advice with the aim of promoting sustainable and equitable development. The Institute began operations in 1985 in Helsinki, Finland, as the first research and training centre of the United Nations University. Today it is a unique blend of think tank, research institute, and UN agency-providing a range of services from policy advice to governments as well as freely available original research. The Institute is funded through income from an endowment fund with additional contributions to its work programme from Finland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom as well as earmarked contributions for specific projects from a variety of donors.

Do pandemics lead to rebellion? Policy responses to COVID-19, inequality, and protests in the USA

“…For some time, there has been growing concern among scholars and political commentators about the political consequences of rises in inequality in the USA since the 1980s-and in many other parts of the world (Piketty 2014). Studies have shown evidence for links between increases in inequality and unprecedented rises in far-right and populist political parties, the election of several governments with strong nationalistic overtones (including in the USA), and the erosion of democratic institutions (Hacker 2006;Piketty 2014;Rodrik, 2018;Algan et al 2017;Iacoella et al 2020). Our results indicate that US counties with initially high levels of economic (and racial) inequality were in fact more likely to protest during the COVID-19 pandemic against government policies that further deteriorated their economic standing.…”

“…According to the existing literature, shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic may magnify economic inequalities and lead to protests due to changes in economic conditions or due to changes in political and social preferences (Enos et al 2019;Rozenas and Zhukov 2019;Enikolopov et al 2020). The first mechanism-the deterioration of economic prospects-has been shown by political scientists, sociologists, and economists to be central to social mobilization, protests, and civil unrest (Gurr 1970;Boix 2008;Verwimp et al 2019;Iacoella et al 2020;Ponticelli and Voth 2020). There is a growing consensus that the COVID-19 pandemic will lead the global economy into the worst recession since the Great Depression (IMF 2020).…”

The growing divide: Preferences, interests, and the shadow of the future in Argentina–Brazil relations

“…Also, industrial decline may have political consequences. Research done in Brazil (Iacoella et al, 2020) found that the zones most negatively affected by trade liberalization in the 1990s were the most likely to vote for Jair Bolsonaro. Still, beyond these traits, there are others of a more structural nature that can also be thought to explain the evolution of the bilateral relationship.…”

Crisis Eruptions: A Comparative Analysis of Right-wing Populism in El Salvador and Guatemala

“…For populism experts such as Cas Mudde and Rovira Kaltwasser (2017), populism is a crisis of weak or weakening liberal institutions and populist majoritarianism emerges as a kind of mutation of liberal democracy because of institutional weakness. Mainstream and heterodox economists alike have produced longitudinal and empirical studies correlating the rise of populism with negative impacts of free trade on workers and small businesses (Grossman, 2020;Iacoella et al, 2020;Rodrik, 2018).…”

“…On the other hand, some recent literature also looks at economic "stresses" (Guriev & Papaioannou, 2020;Edelman, 2019) as explaining the ontological insecurity driving right-wing populism. These studies show evidence for a correlation between economic changes like austerity, deindustrialization, and trade liberalization as leading to a rise in both right and left-wing populism (Grossman, 2020;Rodrik, 2020;Iacoella et al, 2020). Some longitudinal studies suggest a direct correlation between periods of recession in free trade or liberalized economics with the rise of populism and protectionism as a reaction to increasing impoverishment of certain sectors (Margalit, 2013).…”