Role of the Boreal Autumn Antarctic Oscillation in Controlling the Winter Frequency of Severe Pollution Events in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region, China

Abstract

The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), which is the main mode of extratropical circulation in the Southern Hemisphere, also has a substantial effect on the Northern Hemisphere climate. We investigated the influence of the early AAO on the frequency of late severe pollution events (SPEF) in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (SPEFBTH) of China during winter. The results show that the winter (December–January–February) SPEFBTH is negatively correlated with the AAO from the previous autumn (August–September–October). The controlling mechanism can be briefly described as follows: the autumn AAO is positively correlated with the mid‐latitude sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Atlantic Ocean. The SST preserves the autumn anomaly signal into the following winter. This anomalous SST regulates changes in the tropical western Indian Ocean–Intertropical Convergence Zone (IN–ITCZ) via air–sea coupling. Subsequently, as a response to the IN–ITCZ anomalies, anomalous wave trains are excited in the upper troposphere from the tropical western Indian Ocean to East Asia. In addition, the local meridional circulation is modulated; therefore, the circulation field and other meteorological elements favorable for the SPEFBTH appear and exacerbate the SPEFBTH. This study describes a new physical mechanism for the pathway of the AAO influence on subsequent SPEFBTH and finds a predictable source in the Southern Hemisphere air–sea system.