Role of spring soil moisture in the formation of large-scale droughts in the East European Plain in 2002 and 2010

Kislov, Alexander; Varentsov, Mikhail; Tarasova, L. L.

doi:10.1134/s0001433815020061

Cited by 16 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 13 publications

(10 reference statements)

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“…The model set up for Moscow was close to other partners' configurations with minor differences, determined by previous experience in COSMO simulations for this region. An additional scaling coefficient of 2.5 was introduced for the rooting depth to avoid dry and hot bias temperature bias, which is typical for hot summers in the European part of Russia [70]. In TERRA look-up tables the rooting depth does not exceed 1 m even for the forests, which is a significant underestimation in comparison to observations [71][72][73].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Urban Canopy Scheme TERRA_URB in the COSMO Model for Selected European Cities

Garbero¹,

Milelli

Mercogliano

et al. 2021

Atmosphere

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The increase in built surfaces constitutes the main reason for the formation of the Urban Heat Island (UHI), that is a metropolitan area significantly warmer than its surrounding rural areas. The urban heat islands and other urban-induced climate feedbacks may amplify heat stress and urban flooding under climate change and therefore to predict them correctly has become essential. Currently in the COSMO model, cities are represented by natural land surfaces with an increased surface roughness length and a reduced vegetation cover, but this approach is unable to correctly reproduce the UHI effect. By increasing the model resolution, a representation of the main physical processes that characterize the urban local meteorology should be addressed, in order to better forecast temperature, moisture and precipitation in urban environments. Within the COSMO Consortium a bulk parameterization scheme (TERRA_URB or TU) has been developed. It parametrizes the effects of buildings, streets and other man-made impervious surfaces on energy, moist and momentum exchanges between the surface and atmosphere, and additionally accounts for the anthropogenic heat flux as a heat source from the surface to the atmosphere. TU implements an impervious water-storage parameterization, and the Semi-empirical Urban canopy parametrization (SURY) that translates 3D urban canopy into bulk parameters. This paper presents evaluation results of the TU scheme in high-resolution simulations with a recent COSMO model version for selected European cities, namely Turin, Naples and Moscow. The key conclusion of the work is that the TU scheme in the COSMO model reasonably reproduces UHI effect and improves air temperature forecasts for all the investigated urban areas, despite each city has very different morphological characteristics. Our results highlight potential benefits of a new turbulence scheme and the representation of skin-layer temperature (for vegetation) in the model performance. Our model framework provides perspectives for enhancing urban climate modelling, although further investigations in improving model parametrizations, calibration and the use of more realistic urban canopy parameters are needed.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Urban Canopy Scheme TERRA_URB in the COSMO Model for Selected European Cities

Garbero¹,

Milelli

Mercogliano

et al. 2021

Atmosphere

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“…The final 1-km step was selected to resolve urban-atmosphere interactions and the consequential urban-caused mesoscale features. Configuration of the model was optimized to minimize the known problems of overestimation of nocturnal temperatures by COSMO model [48,[55][56][57] and problems of temperature overestimation during summer heat waves reported in [58]. Such optimization included the tuning of the turbulent diffusion scheme as suggested in [55], using the new vegetation-skin temperature formulation [59] and other modifications, see the study of Varentsov et al (2017) [30] for more details.…”

Section: Regional Climate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Megacity-Induced Mesoclimatic Effects in the Lower Atmosphere: A Modeling Study for Multiple Summers over Moscow, Russia

et al. 2018

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Urbanization leads to distinct meteorological features of urban environments, and one the best-known is the urban heat island (UHI) effect. For megacities, these features become mesoscale phenomena (scale ≥ 10 km) that are amplified by the tropospheric feedbacks, and have substantial implications on human well-being. For the first time, a three-dimensional statistical description of the megacity-induced meteorological effects extending towards the lower troposphere for summer is acquired on a quasi-climatological timescale (a decade) based on high-resolution (1 km) simulations for Moscow with the COSMO-CLM model with and without its urban canopy model TERRA_URB. Our results confirm the features from previous observational and modeling studies, including the UHI itself, the cooling effect above established by the cross-over effect, the urban dry/moist islands and the urban breeze circulation. Particularly, the UHI shows a strong diurnal variation in terms of intensity and vertical extent between daytime (≈0.5 K/≈1.5 km) and nighttime (>3 K/≈150 m). We have discovered a systematic veering in the downwind shift of the UHI spatial pattern established by the Coriolis effect, and an enhanced stable stratification of the rural surroundings established by the urban plumes further downwind. Finally, extending the analysis to multiple summers demonstrates a substantial increase in summer precipitation (up to +25%) over the city center and its leeward side. These urban-caused mesoclimatic effects need to be taken into account in weather and climate services, including the design of future megacities.

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“…Furthermore the size of that global hypothesis test (i.e., the probability of rejecting a global null hypothesis if it is true), is α global = α FDR . α was taken to be 5% correlation coe cients within 0.5(Kislov et al 2015;Duerinck et al 2016;Zongxing et al 2016). Based on this assumption, the effect of P on Q ood is taken into account not only through the amount of available moisture, but also by reducing the PET on rainy days.…”

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confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impact On Flood Runoff Over Lake Baikal Catchment

Grigorev¹,

Kharlamov²,

Semenova³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Water level and distribution of dissolved and suspended matter of Lake Baikal are strongly affected by river inflow during rain-driven floods. This study analyses river flow changes at 44 streamflow gauges and related precipitation, evaporation, potential evaporation and soil moisture obtained from ERA5-Land dataset. Based on Sen-Slope trend estimator, Mann–Kendall non-parametric test, and using dominant analyses we estimated influence of meteorological parameters on river flow during 1979-2019. Using ridge-regression we found significant relationships between precipitation elasticity of river flow and catchments features. Half of the gauges in eastern part of Selenga river basin showed a significant decreasing trend of average and maximum river flow (up to -2.9%/year). No changes in central volume date of flood flow have been found. A reduction in rainfall amounts explains more than 60% of runoff decline. Decrease in evaporation is observed where precipitation decrease is 0.8%/y or more. Catchments where the precipitation trends are not as substantial are associated with increasing evaporation as a result of the increase of potential evaporation. Negative trends of precipitation are accompanied by negative trends of soil moisture. Finally, the study reveals sensitivity of the catchments with steep slopes in humid area to precipitation change.

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Role of spring soil moisture in the formation of large-scale droughts in the East European Plain in 2002 and 2010

Cited by 16 publications

References 13 publications

Evaluating the Urban Canopy Scheme TERRA_URB in the COSMO Model for Selected European Cities

Evaluating the Urban Canopy Scheme TERRA_URB in the COSMO Model for Selected European Cities

Megacity-Induced Mesoclimatic Effects in the Lower Atmosphere: A Modeling Study for Multiple Summers over Moscow, Russia

Climate Change Impact On Flood Runoff Over Lake Baikal Catchment

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