Objectives
To evaluate the role of P-wave parameters, as defined on preprocedural electrocardiography (ECG), in predicting atrial fibrillation (AF) after cardiac surgery (POAF).
Methods
Pubmed, Cochrane library, and Embase were searched for studies reporting on P-wave parameters and risk of POAF. Meta-analysis of P-wave parameters reported by at least five different publications was performed. In case of receiver operator characteristics (ROC-curve) analysis in the original publications, a ROC meta-analysis was performed to summarize the sensitivity and specificity.
Results
Thirty-two publications, with a total of 20,201 patients, contributed to the meta-analysis. Increased P-wave duration, measured on conventional 12-lead ECG (22 studies, Cohen’s d = 0.4, 95% confidence interval: 0.3–0.5, p < 0.0001) and signal-averaged ECG (SAECG) (12 studies, Cohen’s d = 0.8, 95% confidence interval: 0.5–1.2, p < 0.0001), was a predictor of POAF independently from left atrial size. ROC meta-analysis for SAECG P-wave duration showed an overall sensitivity of 72% (95% confidence interval: 65–78%) and specificity of 68% (95% confidence interval: 58–77%). Summary ROC-curve had a moderate discriminative power with an area under the curve of 0.76. There was substantial heterogeneity in the meta-analyses for P-wave dispersion and PR-interval.
Conclusion
This meta-analysis shows that increased P-wave duration, measured on conventional 12-lead ECG and SAECG, predicted POAF in patients undergoing cardiac surgery.